N-tests will cripple Pak: Experts

Defence experts here are of the opinion that the fallout of the Pakistani action in military, geo-political and economic terms will actually be in India’s favour. The Pakistani move is seen by analysts as miscalculated and an effort to counter the massive political and public pressure which followed the Indian nuclear tests earlier this month. Though the nuclear tests were expected and "had to come" military sources say that five explosions, as claimed, were a bit of surprise.

Though an Indo-Pak nuclear war has been ruled out, experts at the same time say that top priority must be given to prepare the public for nuclear warfare and adequate precautionary measures must be at hand.

While calling for a calm and diffident facade, experts urge consolidating our own gains and bring about a political cohesiveness where national interest is concerned.

The Pakistani tests have also put an end to nuclear ambiguity which prevailed in the region for the past decade. Finally, the exact Pakistani nuclear capability has been exposed. "An adversary is more dangerous if his capabilities are not known. Knowing his strength is advantageous and one can consequently be prepared to face reality," comments former IMA Commandant, Maj Gen Rajendra Nath (retd).

The biggest blow to Pakistan will come from economic sanctions. With several developed countries already announcing blocking of aid and loans, the country’s economy will cripple. The declaration of emergency and the Nawaz Sharif’s frantic appeals to the people is an indication towards this.

Reports say that Pakistan’s foreign reserves will last only about three weeks.

"The US is in a dilemma. If it does not impose sanctions on Pakistan, it will have to remove those imposed on India," says Wg Cdr D.P. Sabharwal.

"While India can take the sanctions under its belt, Pakistan will be incapacitated." Perhaps one of the biggest off-spins for India could be a decline in Pakistani support to insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. Abetting insurgency requires finances and political back-up. With the embargo on aid and the reported feeling in Pakistan that the Indian government may take a tough stance on this issue, Pakistan may soften on PoK and J&K. The troops deployed and money spent there could be reduced.

"I actually expect Pakistan to now settle down and have a more balanced approach," says Maj Gen G.S. Nagra (retd), who was the first Indian General to enter Dhaka during the 1971 Indo-Pak war.

Several officers also feel that since India has taken the plunge, the Kashmir issue should now be settled for once and for all. "Conditions favourable to the local population and those in the larger interest of the nation should be created," said a retired general.

Covert Chinese support to the Pakistani nuclear programme is an established fact. "The Chinese have their own interests and want this game to keep going as it directly benefits them. They had created a crisis in 1962 when the Indian economy was showing signs of acceleration."

One possibility which would require close monitoring is, as Air Marshal Randhir Singh puts it, some Islamic countries lending support to Pakistan and pumping in funds for militarisation. This, however, would serve only a short term purpose. If Pakistan takes this course, experts opine that with masses divided on ethnic and regional basis and the reigns of the country being in the hands of one community, it will go the Soviet way.

"Diplomatically, tensions are bound to remain high for some time, but will eventually subside. Pakistan will realise that it is on an equal footing with India and both countries will have more respect for each other. They will come to the negotiating table," says Wg Cdr Sabharwal.

"India has got one more precious chance to do the amends. The label of `rogue nation’ can be tackled with matured diplomacy and approach. The politicians should keep their mouths shut and let professionals in the Foreign Office handle the affairs. Pakistan should not be a yard stick for us as it thrives on its anti-India doctrine," says Dinesh Mathur, an executive in a multinational organisation.