A roaring tiger with menacing eyes is a symbol of the Shiv Sena. But the Sena supremo has the mind of a fox. The BJP leadership is often in awe of Balasaheb Thackeray — not just the state leadership but also the high command. Balasaheb knows this and enjoys outwitting them. So it was no surprise to Balasaheb watchers when he suddenly announced last week that Maharashtra will have ‘only the Shiv Sena pattern’ and not the ‘Modi pattern’. To drill the point home, he declared that not even the ‘Mayawati pattern’ will have any relevance in the state. Actually, he need not have brought Mayawati into this matrix.There is a method in the matrix. Balasaheb Thackeray’s politics is at once spontaneous and calculated. Indeed, he believes that his ‘intuitive’ responses are ‘divinely strategic’ — whatever he means by that expression. He also claims to have an ‘inner voice’ which, he says directs his political action. Every year, on the eve of his birthday on January 23, he ritually gives ‘marathon interviews’ to Sena mouthpiece, Samna. It is in this ritualistic interview on his birthday this year, within a week of Narendra Modi’s mammoth rally at Shivaji Park, that Balasaheb effected his sting operation. Shivaji Park is the place where all historic rallies have been held. Pandit Nehru announced the formation of Maharashtra in this very maidan 48 years ago. Indira Gandhi and Jayaprakash Narayan, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Mayawati — all leaders have sought to leave their political imprint on this maidan. Ever since the Shiv Sena was formed 42 years ago, Balasaheb Thackeray has regarded Shivaji Park as his rightful ground for political mobilisation. Any other leader holding a rally here is seen as an affront to the Sena. A couple of months ago Mayawati displayed her strength at this maidan and appealed to followers of Dr Ambedkar as well as to upper castes to join her in the campaign for a national alternative. The dalits in the state were overwhelmed by the magnitude of the rally but were also confused because the local leadership of the Republican Party (all factions) was either indifferent or totally opposed to her. A large number of Marathi dalit youth have been deserting the RPI and joining either the Shiv Sena or Raj Thackeray’s new outfit, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. True, the traditionalists in the RPI have continued to stay with Ramdas Athavle or Prakash Ambedkar. But already a competition of sorts has begun for the dalit vote bank. Balasaheb as well as his heir apparent, Uddhav, believe that today the appeal of a Marathi identity is more dominant than that of the dalit identity. In the same vein, the Thackerays believe that in Maharashtra Hindu identity politics has no independent base unless it is sharpened by a fierce Marathi spirit. Shivaji is the spirit and symbol of this militant Marathi identity. Balasaheb, in one stroke, has issued a warning to his saffron comrades that the Sena cannot be taken for granted in the next election and has also declared a war with Mayawati by closing ranks with the dalit Marathi youth. In the same marathon interview, he has also announced that the Sena will back Sharad Pawar as a Marathi icon, for the post of the prime minister, notwithstanding the BJP’s announcement that L.K. Advani is their official candidate. Balasaheb has served a notice to the BJP. The attack on the so-called ‘Modi pattern’ is a ruse. In fact, this is not a new tactic. The Shiv Sena threatened the alliance with the BJP six months ago when it openly supported Pratibha Patil for the post of president. The Sena will lose its very raison d’etre if it allows any other identity to override the idea of ‘Marathi Manoos’. It is not generally recognised that when the state of Maharashtra was carved out, the principal socio-cultural contradiction in Mumbai was between the Marathi and Gujarati community. The Gujarati community was perceived as the business class and the Marathi people were the proletariat. The Gujaratis were seen as rich and the Marathis as poor or middle class. The Marathi people fought for the creation of Maharashtra as a separate state with Mumbai as its capital, while the Gujaratis, led primarily by the maverick Morarji Desai, wanted the metropolis as a bi-lingual state.That contradiction continues even today. The Marathi people have that characteristic diffidence, bordering on the inferiority complex, while dealing with the Gujaratis. Balasaheb Thackeray belongs to that generation. He turned 81 last week and when he spoke of the so-called ‘Modi pattern’ with a sort of contempt, he was merely manifesting a decades-old resentment. This socio-cultural divide has always reflected in election campaigns. The BJP and the Sena, despite their alliance, have hardly ever campaigned together. It is an alliance only for the legislative numbers game. After the grand victory in Gujarat, the BJP had started to subtly campaign for a greater seat share in the elections for the assembly as well as for Lok Sabha. Balasaheb knows that the BJP cannot come to power without Sena support. No wonder the Sena is preparing for getting its pound of flesh. By announcing a special relationship with Sharad Pawar, the Shiv Sena has thrown down a gauntlet at the BJP and made it clear that in the year 2009, all the equations will be open. The not-so-subtle attack on the ‘Modi pattern’ is a smart move in that direction.The writer is editor, ‘Loksatta’ kumar.ketkar@expressindia.com
