Monsoon on course, say weathermen

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is now confirming the situation, its bulletin noting ‘‘conditions are favourable for further advance of the monsoon to coastal Karnataka and south interior Karnataka during the next 48 hours.’’

This puts to an end the panic over a possible delay in the arrival of the south-west monsoon. The monsoon hit the Kerala coast on Sunday with heavy rains. A day earlier, the monsoon system entered the mainland in the North-East through its eastern arm, crossing the Bay of Bengal and Myanmar.

What led to speculation over a possible delay was the late activisation of the monsoon system over the Arabian Sea. But the IMD has cleared any such apprehension of slow progress: ‘‘The offshore trough in east Arabian Sea is now well marked. The monsoon southwesterlies have strengthened and deepened. Seasonal monsoon trough has become more organised. The northern limit of the monsoon runs along Kannur in Kerala, Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu and then to North East India.’’

In fact, the monsoon arrived in the south Andaman Seas on May 16, ahead of its expected arrival around May 26 due to the formation of a cyclonic system over south Bay of Bengal on May 11. But as the Arabian Sea remained calm for sometime, the situation worried the country’s weathermen, leading to speculation of a possible delay in its date with the Kerala coast.

The IMD predicted its arrival between June 8-10 while Dr Murari Lal of Centre for Atmospheric Studies at Delhi’s Indian Institute of Technology put it between June 5-11. In comparison, the COLA prediction was that it would arrive by June 8.

The peculiar situation created this year by the monsoon system entering the North-East, ahead of its date with the southern coast, has given rise to new speculation over its future course.

Some meteorology scientists say if the COLA forecast about the progress of the monsoon in the southern peninsula comes true and it progresses further inward from the North-East, the central and northern parts of the country will have early arrival of monsoon.

The IMD reported that the monsoon entered the Kerala coast on Sunday with a wind speed of 15-20 knots as against the ideal 25-30 knots. But the rains were good: 14 cm in Kozhikode, 8 cm in Kochi; and, 7 cm in Alappuzha in Kerala.

On Monday, Kottayam reported 9 cm; Kannur had 7 cm; and, 5 cm in Lakshadweep. In the North-East, it rained 17 cm in Kokrajhar, 15 cm in Gossaigaon and 10 cm in Cooch Behar.