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Journalism of Courage
For a country that continues to confuse political observers and investors as to who is really in charge, Russia seems to be working by a crude cynicism. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev8217;s state of the nation address on November 5 caused a twofold worry: the proposed extension of the presidential term to six years that could see Vladimir Putin return to the Kremlin around 2012 and stay on till 2024 and, to the greater discomfort of the world, the plan to deploy nuclear-capable, short-range missiles in the Kaliningrad enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Ostensibly, the plan8217;s casus belli is the US anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
The Russian threat may be an early headache for the Obama administration, but it must be put in the context of declining oil prices and the fact that the Russian stock market has fallen by more than 70 per cent, with losses of some 230 billion for the oligarchs. Now, oil is at the heart of Russian neo-imperialism and the Putin-Medvedev rule. For political reasons too, Venezuela8217;s and Iran8217;s regimes were the most vocal advocates of oil at no less than 100 a barrel. Russian prosperity and its economic motor, like theirs, are hinged on high oil prices. OPEC8217;s experience of falling prices despite production cuts scares Russia, the mainstay of non-OPEC production. Thus rhetoric about missiles should be seen as a gamble, which, if it pays off, will increase bilateral and international tension, and push up oil prices.
