May as well be ’79 in western UP

From dirty drains to fly-infested afternoons spent discussing caste equations, this part of western UP is in a time warp. You may as well have been covering an election here in 1979. For Ajit Singh, it may as well be 1979. As ever, his principal election plank is nostalgia. He is still seeking votes in the name of his father, the late Chaudhary Charan Singh, the once and forever Jat superhero.

Speaking to The Indian Express minutes before he addressed a substantially Muslim crowd in Sikharpur village (Hapur constituency) on Saturday, Ajit explained that his RLD had tied up this time with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP because, ‘‘Chaudhary Saheb’s family had been divided. We have come together to fight for his people.’’

Charan Singh’s son and lieutenant may have been brought together by nothing more than expediency but they do make a formidable alliance. They potentially unite the Jat, Yadav and Tyagi vote, combined with Muslim support. Of the 18 seats that see voting in western UP on Monday — coincidentally the 147th anniversary of the outbreak of the Great Mutiny in the cantonment town of Meerut near here — the SP won three in 1999 and the BJP seven.

The BJP would almost certainly have suffered had it not re-admitted Kalyan Singh. Western UP is Kalyan territory. He has been an MLA from here, is seeking election from Bulandshahr and overseeing a contest that will mean, personally, either complete resurrection or final burial.

On Saturday, May 8, he criss-crossed this belt in a helicopter, chasing Ajit Singh as it were. Mulayam was further north. The Congress’s big guns were firing in Delhi. Bulandshahr-Hapur had been left to Ajit and Kalyan, two desperate men, perhaps one more so than the other.

Kalyan is a Lodh OBC. In Khurja — a reserved seat where Union Minister of State for Labour Ashok Pradhan (BJP) insists ‘‘the BSP and SP are only competing for second place’’ — Lodhs make up 6.5 per cent of the vote. In Bulandshahr they have a 16 per cent vote share. In Rampur — where the Congress’s Begum Noor Bano defends a tough seat — Lodhs comprise 11.5 per cent of the electorate. Kalyan has to deliver this vote.

There are pointers that this battle may be harder than thought. Nobody seriously believes Kalyan won’t win Bulandshahr but the fact that he spent the final four days camped here is, to some, telling. Kalyan was dismissive of all this: ‘‘We will win 12 of the 18 seats on May 10. My coming back to the BJP has enthused party workers, particularly backward caste voters.’’

Where does all this leave the Congress, which won a third of the 18 seats in 1999? In Hapur-Bulandshahr its ‘‘campaign presence’’ is thin. Vajpayee-Kalyan posters dominate. Mulayam-Ajit hoardings make their presence. Even the BSP’s blue flags figure more prominently, perhaps, than in any previous election. The Congress’s role is confined to spoiler. The BJP hopes it will take away the SP-RLD’s Muslim vote. In Bulandshahr, Kalyan’s rivals hope the Congress’s Chandra Shekhar Sharma will draw some of the BJP’s Brahmin support.

In Hapur, where Ramesh Chand Tomar (BJP) is being pushed by Trilok Tyagi (RLD), the alleged likelihood of the Congress’s Surendra Goel walking away with a chunk of the Baniya vote has the BJP is a tizzy. To add to the confusion, is Kunwar Ayub Ali, till recently in the RLD but now contesting on a BSP ticket. He’s the dark horse — of the 18 lakh voters here, over two lakh are Dalit and about a lakh Muslim, according to a local political worker.

To try and guess a verdict in this madhouse would be lunacy. In terms of the big picture, one disconcerting feature emerges. Despite all the lip service to farmers’ issues, development — or the ‘‘bijli-sadak-paani’ factor if you prefer — is decidedly in second gear. About the only promise of a 21st century India was an SP poster at Ajit’s Shikarpur rally that showed a young man in trousers and a shirt teaching a farmer and his family how to use a computer. About the only substantive issue was Kalyan telling members of the Bulandshahr Bar Association at a small meeting at the Hotel Kalash that he would raise the demand for a ‘‘bench of the Allahabad High Court in western UP’’.

For Kalyan, this is the moment of truth. Till the other day, he seemed destined to be Mulayam’s junior ally, like Ajit is today. Then the party brought home the prodigal. On April 13, he was given back his Z-plus security. In 2001, when it had been taken away, Kalyan had gone to court, alleging Vajpayee and L K Advani wanted to ‘‘eliminate him’’.

Kalyan would prefer to forget that petition. The BJP would be happy to help him in his amnesia. Now if only he could deliver those seats in western UP.