Lok Sabha polls: the sooner the better, thinks BJP

If they decide to ‘‘synchronise’’ the general elections with the five assembly polls slated for the end of this year, the current monsoon session could well be the last session of the 13th Lok Sabha.

According to well-placed sources, Advani is keen on simultaneous polls, both as a general principle and as an electoral tactic. That is why he floated the idea of holding assembly and Lok Sabha polls simultaneously—a practice that was discontinued only in 1971.

But the more immediate reason for Advani’s proposal was to prepare his own party MPs and cadres for early—and simultaneous—polls. Talking to reporters last week, Advani had said the ‘‘first quarter of the year’’ would be a good time to hold both the Assembly and the Lok Sabha elections.

But that may not be possible because Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, and Mizoram have to take place by the end of the year.

In case they are not, fresh electoral rolls would have to be prepared for these polls—a time-consuming process that the government would rather avoid.

If Assembly elections cannot be postponed, the only way to achieve the ideal of simultaneity is to bring forward the Lok Sabha elections to November. A final decision on that would depend on the assessment made by the BJP leadership.

One section, led by Advani and backed by Naidu, feels the key is not timing but ‘‘synchronity”. In other words, they believe that the party stands to gain if the two elections are held together because then the popularity of Vajpayee, the stability of the NDA coalition, and the achievements of the central government will be overriding factors, not state-level issues where the BJP is on far shakier ground.

The other view, which some believe is backed by Vajpayee himself, is that the party should wait and watch the Assembly elections first. If it does well, then it can go for early polls in February 2004 or else wait till later.

Those favouring simultaneous polls in November believe that the party should not take the risk of doing badly in the Assembly elections. That would weaken the morale of the BJP rank and file, galvanise the Congress, and create fissures in the NDA—all of which will damage the BJP’s prospects in the Lok Sabha elections.

The ‘‘November option,’’ therefore, is very much open but only after a detailed analysis of the pros and cons, sources said.

No dates for this meeting have been fixed so far since Vajpayee has been unwell, Naidu out of town, and Advani set to travel this week-end. The decision, though, is likely to be taken before the parliament session ends later this month, sources said.