The address of the Chinese Ambassador, Zhou Gang, at the United Services Institute of India, on March 24 received extensive coverage in the Indian media. I presided over this function and the discussions which followed the speech. Zhou described China's policy towards South and South East Asia. His presentation on China's India policy was remarkably moderate, reasonable and non-polemic. He was patient and tactful in responding to the questions from the audience, which lasted for nearly an hour after his 45-minute speech. The purpose here is not to repeat all that he said in its entirety. It is to examine prospects of Sino-Indian relations in a realistic perspective.In my introductory remarks, I mentioned that Indian public opinion assesses India's relations with important countries, through three prisms, namely, the stated policy and attitudes of the foreign country concerned. Secondly, an assessment of the extent to which these declared policies find expression in practical terms. And third, the prospectsof relations are judged in the context of national perceptions as well as regional perceptions about the policies of an important power.The highly critical and antagonistic Chinese reaction to the Indian Shakti tests, the reactions which were also a result of India specifically naming China as the causative security threat for India's nuclear weaponisation, stand toned down at least in bilateral exchanges. The meeting between foreign ministers Jaswant Singh and Tang Jixuan in Manila in July 1998, the interaction between the Chinese Ambassador and senior Indian officials in New Delhi, and discussions held between Joint Secretary (East Asia) Rangachari and his counterparts in Beijing in February have ensured a gradual and incremental thaw of the freeze which occurred in May-June 1998. Both Jaswant Singh and Tang Jixuan have signalled possibilities of the Joint Working Group's meetings being restored to their normal pattern from late April or May. The tone of Ambassador Zhou's speech confirmed thisthaw.Outlining China's assessment of broad trends in international relations, Zhou said that the post-Cold War new World Order remains competitive and complex. There would be ups and downs in relations between major power centres of the world. China's endeavour would be to ensure balance and stability in the international situation. This endeavour will be governed by China's adherence to the principles of non-confrontation, non-interference, and non-alignment. China is conscious of the contradiction between the trends of globalisation and the requirements of preserving national sovereignty. The major challenges to international stability and peace in the Chinese view are; hegemonism, power politics and centrifugal forces of religion, ethnicity and competition for natural resources. In China's view the overriding twin objectives of the new international order should be maintaining peace and sustaining development in developing countries.Speaking about China's policies at the macro-level, Ambassador Zhoustated that national economic consolidation and development is the highest priority for China. China hopes to achieve this objective through the instrumentality of socialistic modernisation. He mentioned 9.8 per cent average rate of annual growth in China. China being the seventh economic power in the world with the second highest foreign exchange reserves and direct foreign investment record. The most impressive statistics quoted by him was the rate of growth of Chinese population coming down to 1.1 per cent.Speaking about the foreign and defence policies of China, he asserted that state sovereignty and national security are the primary objectives of China's foreign policy. China follows an independent foreign policy of peace, unity and consolidating relations with developing countries. China's national security and defence policies are aimed at five objectives: consolidating capacity for national defence, resisting external aggression, preserving the unity and territorial integrity of China andstructuring a military strategy of effective defence. China's approach towards south and South East Asian countries, including India, is that of treating them as friendly and important neighbours. China strongly supports the SAARC.Speaking about China's attitude towards India, the Ambassador said that China does not pose any threat to India, nor does India pose any threat to China. He said the only important issue to be resolved is the boundary dispute which in China's opinion should be resolved, acknowledging that the dispute is an inheritance from colonial/imperial rule. The dispute should be solved by negotiations. The first step to achieve this would be to sustain tranquility and peace on the Line of Actual Control and second step, to expand bilateral cooperation in all fields to create an atmosphere of trust.This is then the stated policy which indicates constructive and positive prospects. Now the ground realities. While China's foremost priority is development and national consolidation, the factremains that China is clear in its intentions of emerging as a world power. While Chinese claims on Taiwan and Macau have greater historical validity, China's claims on Tibet and the Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea are questioned by segments of public opinion in the Asian region and the countries of South East Asia. China's response to this questioning is assertive and firm. There are difficulties in relations between China on the one hand and the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam on the other. China is involved in structuring strategic equations and defence cooperation with the US and Pakistan. There are reports of Chinese military presence in Myanmar.Sino-Pakistan defence cooperation arrangements are a matter of particular and continuing concern to India. Perceptions about China's aspirations will be rooted in the ground realities mentioned above and the historical experience of each of the Asian countries in its dealings with China over the last 50 years. It is within the frameworkof this realistic perception that India should structure its China policies. Impulsive and generic accusations against China or a confrontationist attitude is neither necessary nor desirable.Long-term peace and stability in Asia will always depend on a stable, normal and cooperative relationship between the two largest Asian countries, India and China. Such a relationship can only be put in place on the basis of mutual respect for each other's concerns.
