NEW DELHI, July 6: It is a ``win-win'' situation for Sitaram Kesri after the split in the Janata Dal. But the Congress president seems to be positioning himself more for a post-election bid to power at the head of a non-BJP alliance rather than for another bid in the eleventh Lok Sabha which seems difficult given its political configuration.The split in the Janata Dal after a protracted Yadav war has pushed into the background the role the Congress played in destabilising the United Front government in April this year. The Congress can now legitimately say that it is the Janata Dal leaders who are bent upon bringing down their own government. The focus has therefore shifted from the machiavellian politics of Kesri to the fratricidal war inside the JD.Congress leaders are already trying to underscore the point that it is only they who are capable of ruling the country. This kind of hype may not win the party ground level support. But it helps to create a climate which enthuses the rank and file by holding out the hope that power is now around the corner. The recent meeting of the Pradesh Congress Committee chiefs with the Congress president reflected an upbeat mood. `Chacha' Kesri has certainly placed the Congress in a psychologically advantageous position after the organisational elections.At the ground level too the split benefits the Congress in two states Karnataka and Orissa. Though it is still early days, the half a dozen Lok Sabha MPs from Karnataka loyal to Laloo will have to decide which `pallu' they hold. Ramakrishna Hegde has already indicated a reluctance to associate with either of the two wings of the JD and is more likely to make common cause with Congress which is anyway on the upswing in Karnataka.The JD split will hasten the disintegration of the party in Orissa. One group is already in touch with the Congress while another group of legislators is negotiating with the Bharatiya Janata Party. The BJP is expected to increase its vote percentage substantially in the state in the next elections. But it may make a proportionate jump in the number of seats only in the election after the next. The anti-Congress vote will get divided in the next poll and the advantage will go naturally to the Congress.The next electoral fight in Bihar will be between Laloo Yadav and the BJP-Samata combine, and since Laloo cannot join hands with them a vulnerable Chief Minister is likely therefore to ally with the Congress in Bihar in the next elections. The split has made I K Gujral more dependent on Kesri. As it is, the removal of Joginder Singh from the Central Bureau of Investigation is being attributed more to the Congress, including 10 Janpath, than to any other single factor.It may be an attractive proposition for Kesri to try and manouevre the situation to his advantage in the present Lok Sabha, and some see the Congress president making another attempt soon to get to the coveted `gaddi.' There is a view in the capital's political circles that Kesri may get the support of Laloo, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and the Tamil Maanila Congress, and the Dravida Munnetra Kazagam, when the war against Gujral hots up in the weeks to come, and that this may not leave the Left parties, the Telugu Desam Party and the Asom Gana Parishad with any other option but to support him to avoid an election. (For a start, the entry of Laloo's Rashtriya Janata Dal in the UF as its 14th constituent is not going to be an easy affair, though Gujral may want it.)The Left will find it very difficult to support a Congress government either from the inside or outsideas of now. The CPI and the CPM are not one leader parties. Harkishen Surjeet had tried at the Chandigarh convention of the CPM to get the party to tone down its anti-Congressism so as to fight the BJP but did not succeed. The party will have to prepare for a new reality and it will take time. The Left had made a case for elections at the time of the change of guard in the UF in April.The TDP and the AGP also face the Congress as their main adversaries in their states, and their desire to avoid elections cannot be at the cost of their own identity. Without these parties' open support, Kesri does not have the requisite numbers to form a government, even if rest of the UF plumps in his favour.However, this is not to say that Kesri will not try. The strident attack by the Congress Vice President Jitendra Prasada against the West Bengal government on the multi crore personal ledger account scam is an attempt to corner the CPM and bring it to heel. It was Jyoti Basu who only the other day dubbed the Congress as the fountainhead of corruption.Kesri is trying to do to the Left what the Left did to the Congress a few months ago - criticise and yet seek support.But Kesri has better chances of heading a coalition government after the next elections which do not seem far away. If the right arithmetic somehow eludes the BJP and its allies, then it will be a Congress led-coalition at the Centre. The Congress is bound to be the largest party, whether it maintains its present strength or goes down to 100 or even to 80, and it will naturally lay its claim to heading a non-BJP government.Though Sharad Pawar may well manage 25 seats from Maharashtra, the incumbent leader has a natural advantage in the Congress and Kesri is both the party president and the Parliamentary Party leader. Despite the party's dismal defeat in 1996, the Congress could not shake off Narasimha Rao till the courts moved into the picture. And had it not been for the cases against him, Rao would have been a contender for power a few months down the line. That is why Kesri would naturally like the least number of enemies in the UF before the elections.It is Advantage Kesri today because the `Chacha' is sitting pretty and the constituents of the United Front are doing his work for him.
