July rainfall normal and above, says IMD

With Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat reeling under floods, the IMD said nationwide rainfall in July, which is crucial for sowing, is likely to be 97 per cent of the Long Period Average with a plus/minus nine per cent margin of error.

The department said northwest India should get 97 per cent of average rainfall. The figure for northeast India is likely to be 95 per cent. Central India, including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa and Orissa, should receive 102 per cent of average rainfall.

The southern peninsula is expected to get 97 per cent rainfall.

The IMD said El Nino predictions suggest near neutral conditions are likely over the next 3-4 months, adding that sea surface temperatures have remained above normal but below the El Nino threshhold. El Nino is the abnormal rise of sea surface temperature over the Pacific Ocean which may influence the monsoon.

IMD said according to a dynamic prediction system installed at Pune’s National Climate Centre under a collaborative research programme with the Indian Institute of Science, forecasts based on May sea surface temperature suggested above normal rainfall across India from June to September.

The IMD has continued its efforts to improve statistical models. Many new statistical models have been developed indigenously, based on objective methods like ensemble linear regression, artificial neural network and projection pursuit regression.

The Met Department also studied the experimental forecasts for the 2005 southwest monsoon prepared by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Ahmedabad’s Space Applications Centre and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi.

Himachal flood alert

SHIMLA: A flood alert was sounded in many areas of Himachal Pradesh as the Beas and other rivers were in spate, swamping vast tracts of land in Kullu, Mandi, Kinnaur and Shimla districts after over 36 hours of incessant rain. All major power projects opened their flood-gates and sounded a general alert, advising people living in downstream areas to move to safer places. The swirling waters of the Parvati washed away a school building, a bridge and a building under construction at Ghushani in Kullu district, senior superintendent of police A P Singh said here today. PTI