Judicious gift

There is hope for Pakistan yet. The Sup-reme Court's judgement validating last October's military coup meets the expectations of democrats...

There is hope for Pakistan yet. The Sup-reme Court8217;s judgement validating last October8217;s military coup meets the expectations of democrats only in part. But what has been gained is important and could lead Pakistan back to the democratic path in an orderly fashion. A three-year timetable for elections errs on the side of generosity towards the military regime but it is a timetable nevertheless.

Without the ruling, General Pervez Musharraf, plainly reluctant to set a date for the restoration of popular government, would have had the licence to carry on for as long as Zia-ul-Haq. Now, like an oasis in the desert, there is a terminal date for military rule. In coming to this judgement, which is a challenge to Musharraf, the judiciary has asserted some measure of independence. This is no small gain. The credibility of judges who swore oaths of allegiance to the military government, unlike others who refused to do so and resigned, is bound to be improved.

Jurists and politicians will want to study the implications for Pakistan8217;s democratic system of another court ruling the first was in Zia-ul-Haq8217;s time justifying military rule on grounds of necessity. Until Nawaz Sharif used his massive majority in the National Assembly to amend the constitution, the president could dismiss a prime minister because of corruption, breakdown of law and order and bankruptcy, grounds similar to those on which last October8217;s military takeover has been unanimously endorsed by the court.

Every civilian government in Pakistan since the restoration of democracy in the late 1980s has been sacked before its term was over. But whereas the interregnum between popular governments was short when the president did the sacking, when the military did it the gap was as long as three years.

Pakistanis might want to ask themselves whether a modified presidential arrangement might not be wiser than leaving it to their generals to discipline their politicians.

Immediately, the democratic timetable should concentrate Musharraf8217;s mind on essential tasks. Little progress has been made so far towards the stated objectives of cleaning up the system and restoring genuine democracy. Given the kind of resistance the government has been running into, not much progress can be expected unless the government is prepared to be firm. The country is waiting to see whether a military regime, which called off a crackdown on illicit godowns and depots when smugglers and drug-dealers went on strike, will have the stomach to confront traders who are protesting against having to pay sales tax.

A society warped by the drugs and arms trade and huge economic inequalities, and an economy distorted by black money and so disorderly that few pay their taxes cannot be restored to health in the two and half years left. But a serious effort can be made to reduce chaos and disorder. His task on the economic front is made somewhat easier by the gift from the judges of an election timetable. Armed with that he should be able to negotiate a better deal with Washington and the IMF. The debt crisis needs to be addressed and as does the unresolved row with independent power producers before investor confidence in the economy can be restored somewhat.