Following US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage’s visit to Islamabad last May, most of the militants were herded out of PoK, mostly to camps in Tarbela and Mansehra areas.According to sources in Muzaffarabad, the facilities at Batrasi’s Jungle-Mungle area, located on Muzaffarabad-Mansehra road, which had fallen into disuse when training camps were shifted to PoK two years back, were refurbished. Facilities in Jabba, Sufaida and Phulwadi areas of Mansehra were also recommissioned earlier to house and probably train militants. By early June, however, small groups of militants were already moving closer to the LoC again.There are conflicting reports about the status of Lashkar’s training camp at Nala Shui and Muzaffarabad. An independent source said the camp was functioning but Lashkar circles say only the markaz (office of the organisation) is open while the training facility has been shut down. The presence of militants has also been reduced, though not eliminated, at other major camps such as HUM’s Abdali camp at Las Danna, Bagh, the launching depots in the Chhamb area and some important facilities at Karela and other hilltops in the Nakial region of Khuiratta, bordering Jammu. There is evidence of frequent infiltrations from Khuiratta into Jammu sector since May.Information about considerably large training facilities in the Keil area, at the northern tip of Neelum valley, is difficult to come by because the area is virtually isolated due to Indian firing on the valley road. But sources in Athmuqam say cross-border incursions have been taking place from Keil as well.Enquiries in the Bagh and Lipa sectors show that unlike the previous years when several large groups of between 30 to 50 militants each were launched daily from camps located on the LoC, the new strategy is to launch smaller groups of 10 to 15 persons, with long intervals in between. Besides, the groups that crossed the LoC in these sectors this season were launched from a facility at Gojra in Muzaffarabad city instead of the usual launching depots near the LoC.In Lipa, less than 10 groups have been launched since May. One 13-member group of Lashkar was trapped and eliminated by the Indian jawans posted at the Ghora Top post on Shamsbari mountain in mid-May. Their bodies are still lying in inaccessible creeks below the top. Another group of the HUM, led by a guide from the Ghaipura village of Lipa, crossed the LoC successfully in the second week of June.Sources say that in the present conditions, when the army has declined to provide cover fire to infiltrators, the militants are depending on the ISI for information about the location and movement of the Indians.Meanwhile, a new batch of Bats (border action teams) has been raised which observers consider to be a precursor for increased infiltration in coming months. In the past, Bats have been used in Bagh, Lipa and Neelum sectors to trigger remote-controlled explosions close to Indian posts on the LoC. On a border that is heavily mined by India, Bats have been useful in pulling the Indian guards in the opposite direction as militants use safe corridors close to Indian posts to cross the border.Until last year, Bats were routinely trained during the winter months in the militant depots located in Devlian, a small town about an hour’s drive from Muzaffarabad on the Neelum valley road. Lack of work early this season resulted in a spring course for Bats at the Gojra facility in Muzaffarabad. The batch passed out on June 26. Some porters looking for work in Muzaffarabad last month (June) were told by concerned persons to wait until early July when Bats would go into action in some sectors.But before — and if — full-blown action returns to the LoC, the guides and porters of Lipa valley are looking for alternative means of livelihood. At least four former guides have invested their savings in transport jeeps that ply between Lipa and Reshian. Others hope that like last year, when a meeting between Musharraf and Armitage led to a two-month lull, infiltration will pick up in July and peak by August or September.Observers in Muzaffarabad do not rule out this scenario but they seem convinced that, in the long run, jehad is not sustainable any more. Among other factors, the attack on the Indian Parliament a mere three months after 9/11 led to a decrease in the flow of funds from the Middle East for the Kashmiris. Events of those turbulent months also put an end to the domestic chanda campaigns and rallies by militant organisations. Since 2002, Islamabad has banned several militant groups and slapped repeated bans on cross-border infiltration. Combined with war fatigue on part of the civilian population on both sides of the LoC, this has weakened the jehadi culture in Kashmir.But what is crystal clear is that the military option will not be abandoned until there is a formal resolution of the dispute that is acceptable to all concerned. Too many interest groups — from the power brokers in Islamabad to jehadi leaders and civil-military officials who have enjoyed access to unaudited funds — have a direct stake in the industry of violence. They can take a lull in business for some time but few seem ready to wind it up.‘‘My sole aim in life is shahadat (martyrdom),’’ he says, cutting the stalk off an okra and letting it fall into the gushing stream below. ‘‘The agency guys have told me I will be the first in the team they launch when the circumstances are right.’’ (Courtesy: Herald)
