Jaya forced pace in pursuit of a role beyond Tamil Nadu

The TMC was nervous about the prospect of getting wiped out in Tamil Nadu, knowing that Jayalalitha would be unstoppable in Tamil Nadu if she managed to bring down the government. Though Jayalalitha’s other allies, the PMK, MDMK, and RajivCongress, stuck on with Vajpayee, and she has found this galling, they trained their guns on the Congress and not her. They realised they might have to do business with her whenever state elections take place.So Amma has managed to isolate the DMK in Tamil Nadu. The DMK and TMC have not been able to match her charm or determination. Rural Tamil Nadu is not bothered about a law officer getting beaten up in her house.

But Tamil Nadu was not the real objective of her gamble and she took a daring gamble. Had it backfired, she would have found herself in the unenviable position of having to contend with two hostile governments, one at the Centre and the other in the state, both moving in tandem against her when she is caught up in a host of corruption cases. It is not surprising that Jayalalitha matched Harkishen Singh Surjeet’s zeal in ensuring the government was brought down. She handled all the political foxes — Surjeet, Mulayam, Laloo, Bardhan, Chautala — with tact and managed to “convince” Kanshi Ramand Mayawati to vote against the Government. In the process, she increased her own acceptability with them. She even began talking about joining the Third Force.

There is a theory that the government has gone because of a political accident and that events had their own logic.

It is possible that Jayalalitha might have banked on the government giving in to her demand for a JPC on the Bhagwat affair. After all, it had been capitulating to her other demands since Vajpayee took over 13 months ago. Her idea must have been to build bridges with the Congress, a potential ally in Tamil Nadu in the future, with her erstwhile allies, the PMK, the MDMK, Rajiv Congress, having deserted her. Once she realised that the BJP was not ready to oblige her further, she shifted tack, and started raising national issues. She talked about Bhagwat, the LTTE and national security.

When she came to Delhi and attended Subramanian Swamy’s tea party, she spoke on Indo-American relations, defence policy, women’s reservation inlegislatures, besides upping the ante against the government. In the past she has been known to have climbed down when she wanted to and she could have ignored P.R. Kumaramangalam’s harsh words against her when the Prime Minister distanced himself from what his Minister for Parliamentary Affairs had said.

She might have wanted the Law Secretary out and her own man in as Solicitor General. She may have asked for six Cabinet berths including one for Swamy. But at any given point she could have slowed down the events, instead of allowing them to move inexorably in a particular direction. Instead, she forced the pace surely and steadily. Escalating the fight, she first pulled out her ministers from the cabinet, then followed it up by withdrawing from the coordination committee. Withdrawal of support then was a foregone conclusion.

On the face of it, there seemed little political explanation for her actions. Few governments would be prepared to do what the BJP had done for her, besmirching its own image in theprocess. She is too astute to be led by the hand by Subramanian Swamy or anyone else.

Jaya precipitated things because she wants to play a bigger role now. The credit for ousting the government is hers. Sonia Gandhi was a reluctant player till the last day.