Instability in Gujarat

A long spell of political instability looks inevitable in Gujarat as its three major political parties engage in a new round of jockeying for power. Party ideologies are virtually non-existent and party policies are in a state of flux. What remains is a kaleidoscope of shifting loyalties out of which any emerging formation must be viewed as fragile and short-lived. The Rashtriya Janata Party’s alliance with the Congress was built on the single-point agenda of keeping the BJP out of power. Such a narrow agenda cannot be expected to provide a secure foundation for any government, leave alone one like the Rashtriya Janata Party’s which was pitchforked to power through an extraordinary process of engineered defections and splits. Not surprisingly, Chief Minister Shakersinh Vaghela has been under increasing pressure from the conflicting demands of the Congress and his own colleagues. He has survived for 11 months largely because the Congress found no easy way out of its existential dilemma.

With the BJP having become its main adversary over the last one decade, the Congress was left to lend its fading strength to anyone who could keep the saffron hordes at bay. The late Chimanbhai Patel was at hand initially, then Vaghela offered his services. But each time the solution became part of the problem. Each challenger of the BJP consolidated himself by cutting further into the Congress’ shrinking base. The party found itself fighting on two fronts and gaining on neither. The Congress High Command was forced to take note of the discontent in the Gujarat Congress several months ago but it was itself in disarray and could do precious little to tackle the problem.

Whether it has found the right remedy today to counter Vaghela’s escalating hamdost-paksh populism, remains doubtful. The Congress has lost touch with the people. That is the fundamental cause of its decline in Gujarat. Unless Sitaram Kesri and State president C.D. Patel set themselves the task of mobilising grassroots support, the future under any dispensation will be a repetition of the past.

Vaghela has proved to be as recklessly populist in his methods as Chimanbhai Patel. His repertoire consists of far more than the usual write-off of farmers’ electricity dues. The plan to bifurcate six districts and 48 talukas has little to do with rationalising the administration and good governance and everything to do with trying to weaken the BJP’s hold on local bodies. During Vaghela’s term in power there has been no hard evidence about the kind of inroads he has made into BJP citadels in Gujarat. The lure of office, rather than an underlying shift in the public mood, was the reason why former BJP legislators joined the RJP and why many of them will just as easily abandon Vaghela. Therefore, despite L.K. Advani denying any attempt by the BJP to form a government in Gujarat, State leaders are bound to be tempted to make a bid. Many of them believe, after all, that power is a great healer and that once back in office they will be able to repair the party’s image and heal its wounds. Sadly for Gujarat, there looks like being no early escape from the cross-fire among and within the three major political parties.