India to grow at 9.5 pc in 2008/09: CMIE

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy expected inflation to climb to about 5.5 pc in 2008/09 from 4.5 pc in 2007/08.

India’s economy is expected to expand by 9.5 per cent in the current 2008/09 fiscal year, driven by large capacity additions, a Mumbai-based think-tank said on Tuesday.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said the slower growth in last fiscal was an aberration and expects growth to rebound in 2008. The government estimates 2007/08 growth at 8.7 per cent from 9.6 per cent in 2007.

“Our optimism stems from the fact that capex boom in India continues with more and more fresh investments getting announced quarter after quarter,” CMIE said, in its monthly review.

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CMIE’s growth forecast for 2008/09 is much higher than the projections of other analysts.

Last week, Lehman Brothers cut its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year that began on April 1 to 7.6 per cent from 8.3 per cent. HSBC and JP Morgan expect the GDP to grow 7 per cent.

Manufacturing and construction industries will power the economy in 2008/09, CMIE said. While services may grow 10.6 percent, industry is expected to expand 11.4 per cent and agriculture may grow by 2.9 per cent, it said.

CMIE expected average inflation to climb to about 5.5 per cent in 2008/09 from 4.5 per cent in 2007/08.

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