India cancels Jan cricket tour, Pak tries to give crisis a bilateral twist

The broad understanding in New Delhi is that Islamabad is running a calculated and sustained “disinformation campaign” aimed at turning the current situation into an Indo-Pak crisis.

South Block officials said there is a clear pattern to the “disinformation” emanating from Pakistan, all intended to deflect the focus from terror and somewhat ease the massive diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. At the centre of this strategy, sources said, is the Pakistan Army and possibly even the ISI that is putting the onus on the civilian government to act in national interest and not “cave in” to Indian demands.

The Indian assessment is that once the Mumbai attacks are framed in terms of triggering a potential Indo-Pak conflict, Islamabad assumes that the international approach would transform and could possibly cause some reverse pressure on India. And caught in this is Pakistan’s civilian government that will be shown up as “weak” by the Army inside Pakistan if it cooperates and a “pariah” if it backs fundamentalists. Best placed, sources said, is

the Pakistan Army which India believes is currently dictating policy.

The first reports of an airspace violation appeared on Sunday which were immediately denied by the IAF and the Defence Ministry here. The matter was then raised on Tuesday by the Pakistan DGMO in his weekly telephonic conversation and was promptly clarified and denied. By then Zardari had termed this as a “technical violation” and not an alarming incident.

However, in the past few days, Pakistani media has been critical of the Zardari government for not taking up the matter more forcefully with India. Pressure was building on the civilian government, which finally yielded and handed over a note verbale, protesting the alleged violation even after Zardari had sought to play it down.

It’s learnt that the New Delhi had the allegations looked into independently and verified that there was no such incident or flying activity on December 13 in the areas pointed out by Pakistan. While India is now examining the Pakistani note for a proper response, the MEA spokesperson denied it, recalling that India had conveyed “no violations of Pakistani air space by Indian aircraft have taken place”.

Similarly, despite all the reports confirming Ajmal Ameer Kasab’s origins in Pakistan, the Pakistan government today said he is not a Pakistani. Before that a Lahore-based lawyer C M Farooque dominated Pakistan media when he claimed that Ajmal had been picked up in Nepal before 2006 and then handed over to Indian agencies. He, in fact, said he had even filed a habeas corpus petition in the Nepal Supreme Court on the request of his parents.

It turns out that his petition of February 2007 in Nepal sought the release of two different persons — Asif Ali and Walid Sajjad. The Nepal Home Minister formally denied the reports, but the confusion had been created.

This pattern, sources said, started almost the day after the Mumbai siege ended. The first piece of false information was that India had cut air, rail and other transport links with Pakistan. This was immediately denied, but did play on Pakistan TV channels for a considerable duration.

The next was the bizarre incident of the hoax phone call where Zardari is said to have received a threatening call from External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee. The MEA again denied it and Mukherjee stated: “I can only ascribe this series of events to those in Pakistan who wish to divert attention from the fact that a terrorist group, operating from Pakistani territory, planned and launched a ghastly attack on Mumbai.”

While this confusion was on, alarming media reports emerged from Lahore that said Pakistan Army was moving its Lahore-based 4 Corps to the border in anticipation of an Indian assault. The Pakistan government itself denied this as regular troop movements meant for a military exercise, but not until it had caused significant alarm and confusion.

Even on the question of Maulana Masood Azhar, whose presence in Pakistan has been reported many times, Pakistan Defence Minister Chaudhary Mukhtar Ahmed said he had been put under house arrest but now the Pakistan Foreign Ministry says Azhar is not in Pakistan.

Sources said in pressing ahead with the denial approach, Islamabad seems to believe that the worst is over in terms of the Mumbai fallout and that the strategy of diverting issues is delivering results. For India, however, there still remain no easy answers and the only option officials say is to ensure sustained international diplomatic pressure on Pakistan besides issuing timely denials.