Hello, Mr Hope

But turning around Bihar8217;s economy and tackling its caste-ridden complexities is an awesome challenge for anyone 8212; and Nitish8217;s much touted administrative skills, remember, have so far been tested only in the far more salubrious climes of Delhi.

The one thing going for Nitish is that everyone regards him as the very antithesis of Laloo Prasad Yadav. Although they were buddies in the JP Movement, they had very different personalities. Laloo, old timers say, was always the performer with absolutely zero appetite for the nitty-gritty. Nitish, on the other hand, was the disciplined man, patiently carrying out boring assignments.

Recalling those early days, Sharad Yadav says, 8216;8216;The party projected both of them. Nitish sincerely did the tasks given to him. Laloo did not. He did everything 8212; sing, dance, crack jokes, pose before his animals, entertain his visitors 8212; except work for the people.8217;8217;

SENIOR bureaucrats are also setting great store by Nitish8217;s 8216;8216;sincerity8217;8217;. Soon after taking oath, the new chief minister held a closed-door meeting with top officials. He told them there had been three abiding myths about Bihar 8212; that free and fair polls could never take place; that caste polarisation could never allow political change; and that the state8217;s turnaround was a pipedream.

The first two myths had been broken. Over the next five years, he was determined to destroy the third as well.

But can Nitish Kumar, the 8216;8216;systematic8217;8217; politician 8212; heading a disparate coalition of competing castes and conflicting interests 8212; solve the 8216;8216;systemic8217;8217; crisis facing Bihar? That8217;s a tough question to answer. All we can do is outline the challenges before him.

Bihar8217;s rule of flaw
THE biggest challenge of them all 8212; and everything else follows 8212; is to re-establish the rule of law in Bihar, to make the common man feel safe and secure once more. And for that, the new government has to break the criminal-politician-bureaucrat nexus that has existed in the state since the late 1970s and has flourished over the past decade or so.

As D.P. Ojha, former DG, Bihar Police, points out, 8216;8216;Crime is the root cause for Bihar8217;s lack of development. Ganglords belonging to different parties have carved out the state among themselves, and control its economy.8217;8217;

An estimated 50 big 8216;8216;dons8217;8217; who 8216;8216;employ8217;8217; over 10,000 henchmen have had a free run. They have two principal methods of 8216;8216;collection8217;8217; 8212; through control of public expenditure cornering all government contracts and siphoning off as much as 70 per cent of funds allocated for any project; and through 8216;8216;direct crime8217;8217; kidnapping for ransom and rampant extortion.

If the first puts a brake on developmental projects, the second makes the common man live in perpetual fear.

Crime happens everywhere and the criminal-politician nexus is not just a Bihar phenomenon. But over the years, politicians have ceased to control criminals 8212; whom they have used for booth capturing and sundry other 8216;8216;political8217;8217; tasks 8212; and criminals have come to control politics in Bihar. And both politician and criminal in Bihar have flexible loyalties, moving from one party to another with perfect ease.

HAVING won a huge victory, Nitish has managed to keep out the known bahubalis 8212; Munna Shuka, Anant Singh, Manoranjan Singh Dhumal 8212; from his ministry. The NDA government, insiders say, has also given instructions to its own 8216;8216;dons8217;8217; to 8216;8216;subdue8217;8217; the smaller fry responsible for the petty crime that makes life hell for the common man.

But these cosmetic changes are not enough. 8216;8216;If Nitish is serious about good governance, he must proceed against the criminals who have been operating with impunity. Action must be taken and seen to be taken,8217;8217; says Ojha.

Nitish8217;s immediate post-poll sound bites 8212; that he will not 8216;8216;dig up8217;8217; old cases and take action only against those who break the law in the future 8212;are disquieting.

There are hundreds of cases against criminals pending in trial courts 36 against Shahabuddin, the RJD MP from Siwan, alone that have not reached conclusion because witnesses were too afraid to testify, and prosecution lax. If the government means business, special prosecutors must be appointed, witnesses must be guaranteed protection, and trials speeded up.

8216;8216;A policy of forget and forgive will mean the government is not serious about ending crime, it will dash the immense hopes regime change has engendered,8217;8217; a senior official said.8221;

Economics meets empowerment
NITISH, as he wrote in his 8216;8216;India Empowered8217;8217; article in The Indian Express on November 23, believes it is time the rest of India focused on Bihar8217;s development, for its own sake. If Bihar continues to be bottom of the heap, it will bring down India, he insists.

But in order to attract private investment, or even effectively use Central funds, he must establish the rule of law. Given Bihar8217;s rich natural resources and human talent 8212; non-resident Biharis fuel the economy in many parts of India 8212; development is not an empty dream. It is intimately linked with law and order.

8216;8216;Nitish has said he will end crime in three months. If he makes sincere efforts and achieves that goal even in three years, development is bound to follow,8217;8217; a Bihar officer says.

NITISH has promised to end the politics of takrav conflict and usher in an 8216;8216;all inclusive society8217;8217;. But unlike other parts of India, where caste comes into play only at times of elections or when scanning the matrimonial columns on a Sunday morning, caste identity in Bihar remains rooted in quotidian reality.

Empowerment 8212; both in terms of social dignity and material opportunity 8212; is still linked to one8217;s caste affiliation. And the big story of this election is not the eclipse of caste even though anti-incumbency transcended caste more than in previous years but the emergence of a new caste grouping 8212; the Extremely Backward Castes.

The 8216;8216;forward8217;8217; castes are happy with the end of Laloo raj and the less politically astute among them might regard the NDA victory as a return of their rule. But Nitish and Laloo know their future lies in getting the allegiance of the EBCs 8212; who have moved out of the shadow of the more powerful OBCs represented by the Yadavs, Kurmis and Koeris.

But the aspirations of the EBCs 8212; traditionally artisans who own no land and can no longer sustain a living by pursuing their caste occupation 8212; will be difficult to meet without an economic revolution. Their demand for a share of post-Mandal power, cornered so far by the 8216;8216;upper8217;8217; OBCs, is likely to fuel more tensions within the 8216;8216;backwards8217;8217; 8212; in addition to animosities between agde and pichhde that have marked the state8217;s politics for decades.

No Hindutva please
LALOO8217;S big boast in the February election and this one was his 8216;8216;riot-free8217;8217; record. True, Muslims may not have gained much materially, but they felt safe under his rule. With the BJP sharing power for the first time in Bihar, will that record be broken?

Although bloody communal riots are unlikely to break out as long as the M-Y alliance holds on the ground 8212; Yadavs, once the sword arm of the upper castes during riots, have become the protectors of Muslims 8212; the conflicting ideologies of the BJP and the JDU could cause tensions.

CPIML general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya feels it is only a matter of time before Hindutva forces assert themselves in the state: 8216;8216;The BJP is very upbeat and will definitely try to use Bihar for its revival in the Hindi belt, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Their decision to steer clear of ideological issues during the election was a tactical ploy. But the language of their advertisement that Bihar had become a paradise for Bangladeshi infiltrators and ISI agents revealed their anti-Muslim prejudice.8217;8217;

Nitish disowned that advertisement, and is keen to emerge as the protector of minorities. That is an ambition at odds with his dependence on an assertive BJP. The glue of power may keep the JDU-BJP alliance going, but reconciling the fundamental ideological differences between the two outfits 8212; which Nitish never fails to underline 8212; is certainly another difficult challenge before him.

Rescue Nitish from the NDA
LALOO Prasad Yadav may have lost power but he still retains his political acumen. His first remark after acknowledging defeat was significant: 8216;8216;Main Nitishji ko vyaktigat roop se badhai deta hoon; but not the BJP.8217;8217; The last four words stated forcefully in English.

That one sentence, followed up by some warm comments about Nitish Kumar and the challenge before him, had several nuances 8212; aimed at both his partners in Delhi and his people in Bihar.

Weakened by his defeat in Bihar, Laloo needs the Congress more than it needs him right now. And Laloo knows he must retain the rapport he has so far enjoyed with Sonia Gandhi. And the way to Sonia8217;s heart is to be stridently anti-BJP.

The RJD, thanks to Laloo8217;s consistent fight against the BJP unlike other UPA partners who were once with the NDA, will remain a valuable ally for Sonia because she can count on it to be 8216;8216;secular8217;8217;. Laloo sought to reinforce that impression after his November 22 defeat.

But more important, his praise for Nitish and disdain for the BJP is part of a strategy to drive a wedge between the coalition partners once the new government settles down.

Laloo is shrewd enough to know that Nitish has managed to draw the support of a large section of OBCs, EBCs, and even Muslims and some Yadavs this time. He could not have secured the mandate he has on the strength of the upper castes and Kurmi/Koeris alone.

At this moment, he does not want to alienate these sections by hitting out at Nitish. His line during the election campaign was that Nitish was a 8216;8216;stooge8217;8217; of the upper castes. By praising Nitish, he has chosen a different tack. The new line seems to be: Nitish is a good man, he is an innocent man, he is one of 8216;8216;us8217;8217; 8212; but can he stand up to the might of the upper castes?

And can he 8212; dependent as he is on the BJP 8212; safeguard the Muslims like I did?

Before the results were out, Laloo was confident that the NDA would not win a majority because he did not think the 8216;8216;poor and backwards8217;8217; would be foolish enough to fall into the 8216;8216;upper caste trap8217;8217;.

Now that the unthinkable has happened, he is waiting for the unnatural coalition to come apart. And will do everything to exacerbate the nascent conflicts inherent in this coalition.

AFTER 15 years in power, Laloo Yadav 8212; one of India8217;s foremost mass leaders 8212; had turned into a larger than life persona, a television icon with a filmstar-like fan following even beyond India8217;s borders. Somewhere along the way, he lost touch with his people.

But Laloo, like Indira Gandhi, is a natural politician, a mass leader of the old school. Nitish, Laloo himself pointed out this week, has a huge challenge before him 8212; much bigger than the one Laloo faced.

Laloo only had to keep the backwards happy by promising them swar voice. Nitish wants to keep everyone happy in a polarised polity where one caste8217;s happiness can still mean another8217;s misery. And he has promised swar as well as swarg.

Those promises will be hard to keep, and having Laloo in the opposition might prove far more lethal for Nitish than Laloo8217;s misrule by proxy. No wonder Laloo has been heard referring to Indira Gandhi8217;s famous elephant ride to Belchi 8212; the ride that eventually brought her back to power after the 1977 defeat.

Manini Chatterjee