Hello, Mr Hope

But turning around Bihar’s economy and tackling its caste-ridden complexities is an awesome challenge for anyone — and Nitish’s much touted administrative skills, remember, have so far been tested only in the far more salubrious climes of Delhi.

The one thing going for Nitish is that everyone regards him as the very antithesis of Laloo Prasad Yadav. Although they were buddies in the JP Movement, they had very different personalities. Laloo, old timers say, was always the performer with absolutely zero appetite for the nitty-gritty. Nitish, on the other hand, was the disciplined man, patiently carrying out boring assignments.

Recalling those early days, Sharad Yadav says, ‘‘The party projected both of them. Nitish sincerely did the tasks given to him. Laloo did not. He did everything — sing, dance, crack jokes, pose before his animals, entertain his visitors — except work for the people.’’

SENIOR bureaucrats are also setting great store by Nitish’s ‘‘sincerity’’. Soon after taking oath, the new chief minister held a closed-door meeting with top officials. He told them there had been three abiding myths about Bihar — that free and fair polls could never take place; that caste polarisation could never allow political change; and that the state’s turnaround was a pipedream.

The first two myths had been broken. Over the next five years, he was determined to destroy the third as well.

But can Nitish Kumar, the ‘‘systematic’’ politician — heading a disparate coalition of competing castes and conflicting interests — solve the ‘‘systemic’’ crisis facing Bihar? That’s a tough question to answer. All we can do is outline the challenges before him.

Bihar’s rule of flaw
THE biggest challenge of them all — and everything else follows — is to re-establish the rule of law in Bihar, to make the common man feel safe and secure once more. And for that, the new government has to break the criminal-politician-bureaucrat nexus that has existed in the state since the late 1970s and has flourished over the past decade or so.

As D.P. Ojha, former DG, Bihar Police, points out, ‘‘Crime is the root cause for Bihar’s lack of development. Ganglords belonging to different parties have carved out the state among themselves, and control its economy.’’

An estimated 50 big ‘‘dons’’ who ‘‘employ’’ over 10,000 henchmen have had a free run. They have two principal methods of ‘‘collection’’ — through control of public expenditure (cornering all government contracts and siphoning off as much as 70 per cent of funds allocated for any project); and through ‘‘direct crime’’ (kidnapping for ransom and rampant extortion).

If the first puts a brake on developmental projects, the second makes the common man live in perpetual fear.

Crime happens everywhere and the criminal-politician nexus is not just a Bihar phenomenon. But over the years, politicians have ceased to control criminals — whom they have used for booth capturing and sundry other ‘‘political’’ tasks — and criminals have come to control politics in Bihar. And both politician and criminal in Bihar have flexible loyalties, moving from one party to another with perfect ease.

HAVING won a huge victory, Nitish has managed to keep out the known bahubalis — Munna Shuka, Anant Singh, Manoranjan Singh Dhumal — from his ministry. The NDA government, insiders say, has also given instructions to its own ‘‘dons’’ to ‘‘subdue’’ the smaller fry responsible for the petty crime that makes life hell for the common man.

But these cosmetic changes are not enough. ‘‘If Nitish is serious about good governance, he must proceed against the criminals who have been operating with impunity. Action must be taken and seen to be taken,’’ says Ojha.

Nitish’s immediate post-poll sound bites — that he will not ‘‘dig up’’ old cases and take action only against those who break the law in the future —are disquieting.

There are hundreds of cases against criminals pending in trial courts (36 against Shahabuddin, the RJD MP from Siwan, alone) that have not reached conclusion because witnesses were too afraid to testify, and prosecution lax. If the government means business, special prosecutors must be appointed, witnesses must be guaranteed protection, and trials speeded up.

‘‘A policy of forget and forgive will mean the government is not serious about ending crime, it will dash the immense hopes regime change has engendered,’’ a senior official said.”

Economics meets empowerment
NITISH, as he wrote in his ‘‘India Empowered’’ article in The Indian Express on November 23, believes it is time the rest of India focused on Bihar’s development, for its own sake. If Bihar continues to be bottom of the heap, it will bring down India, he insists.

But in order to attract private investment, or even effectively use Central funds, he must establish the rule of law. Given Bihar’s rich natural resources and human talent — non-resident Biharis fuel the economy in many parts of India — development is not an empty dream. It is intimately linked with law and order.

‘‘Nitish has said he will end crime in three months. If he makes sincere efforts and achieves that goal even in three years, development is bound to follow,’’ a Bihar officer says.

NITISH has promised to end the politics of takrav (conflict) and usher in an ‘‘all inclusive society’’. But unlike other parts of India, where caste comes into play only at times of elections or when scanning the matrimonial columns on a Sunday morning, caste identity in Bihar remains rooted in quotidian reality.

Empowerment — both in terms of social dignity and material opportunity — is still linked to one’s caste affiliation. And the big story of this election is not the eclipse of caste (even though anti-incumbency transcended caste more than in previous years) but the emergence of a new caste grouping — the Extremely Backward Castes.

The ‘‘forward’’ castes are happy with the end of Laloo raj and the less politically astute among them might regard the NDA victory as a return of their rule. But Nitish (and Laloo) know their future lies in getting the allegiance of the EBCs — who have moved out of the shadow of the more powerful OBCs represented by the Yadavs, Kurmis and Koeris.

But the aspirations of the EBCs — traditionally artisans who own no land and can no longer sustain a living by pursuing their caste occupation — will be difficult to meet without an economic revolution. Their demand for a share of post-Mandal power, cornered so far by the ‘‘upper’’ OBCs, is likely to fuel more tensions within the ‘‘backwards’’ — in addition to animosities between agde and pichhde that have marked the state’s politics for decades.

No Hindutva please
LALOO’S big boast in the February election and this one was his ‘‘riot-free’’ record. True, Muslims may not have gained much materially, but they felt safe under his rule. With the BJP sharing power for the first time in Bihar, will that record be broken?

Although bloody communal riots are unlikely to break out as long as the M-Y alliance holds on the ground — Yadavs, once the sword arm of the upper castes during riots, have become the protectors of Muslims — the conflicting ideologies of the BJP and the JD(U) could cause tensions.

CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya feels it is only a matter of time before Hindutva forces assert themselves in the state: ‘‘The BJP is very upbeat and will definitely try to use Bihar for its revival in the Hindi belt, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Their decision to steer clear of ideological issues during the election was a tactical ploy. But the language of their advertisement (that Bihar had become a paradise for Bangladeshi infiltrators and ISI agents) revealed their anti-Muslim prejudice.’’

Nitish disowned that advertisement, and is keen to emerge as the protector of minorities. That is an ambition at odds with his dependence on an assertive BJP. The glue of power may keep the JD(U)-BJP alliance going, but reconciling the fundamental ideological differences between the two outfits — which Nitish never fails to underline — is certainly another difficult challenge before him.

Rescue Nitish from the NDA
LALOO Prasad Yadav may have lost power but he still retains his political acumen. His first remark after acknowledging defeat was significant: ‘‘Main Nitishji ko vyaktigat roop se badhai deta hoon; but not the BJP.’’ The last four words stated forcefully in English.

That one sentence, followed up by some warm comments about Nitish Kumar and the challenge before him, had several nuances — aimed at both his partners in Delhi and his people in Bihar.

Weakened by his defeat in Bihar, Laloo needs the Congress more than it needs him right now. And Laloo knows he must retain the rapport he has so far enjoyed with Sonia Gandhi. And the way to Sonia’s heart is to be stridently anti-BJP.

The RJD, thanks to Laloo’s consistent fight against the BJP (unlike other UPA partners who were once with the NDA), will remain a valuable ally for Sonia because she can count on it to be ‘‘secular’’. Laloo sought to reinforce that impression after his November 22 defeat.

But more important, his praise for Nitish and disdain for the BJP is part of a strategy to drive a wedge between the coalition partners once the new government settles down.

Laloo is shrewd enough to know that Nitish has managed to draw the support of a large section of OBCs, EBCs, and even Muslims and some Yadavs this time. He could not have secured the mandate he has on the strength of the upper castes and Kurmi/Koeris alone.

At this moment, he does not want to alienate these sections by hitting out at Nitish. His line during the election campaign was that Nitish was a ‘‘stooge’’ of the upper castes. By praising Nitish, he has chosen a different tack. The new line seems to be: Nitish is a good man, he is an innocent man, he is one of ‘‘us’’ — but can he stand up to the might of the upper castes?

And can he — dependent as he is on the BJP — safeguard the Muslims like I did?

Before the results were out, Laloo was confident that the NDA would not win a majority because he did not think the ‘‘poor and backwards’’ would be foolish enough to fall into the ‘‘upper caste trap’’.

Now that the unthinkable has happened, he is waiting for the unnatural coalition to come apart. And will do everything to exacerbate the nascent conflicts inherent in this coalition.

AFTER 15 years in power, Laloo Yadav — one of India’s foremost mass leaders — had turned into a larger than life persona, a television icon with a filmstar-like fan following even beyond India’s borders. Somewhere along the way, he lost touch with his people.

But Laloo, like Indira Gandhi, is a natural politician, a mass leader of the old school. Nitish, Laloo himself pointed out this week, has a huge challenge before him — much bigger than the one Laloo faced.

Laloo only had to keep the backwards happy by promising them swar (voice). Nitish wants to keep everyone happy in a polarised polity where one caste’s happiness can still mean another’s misery. And he has promised swar as well as swarg.

Those promises will be hard to keep, and having Laloo in the opposition might prove far more lethal for Nitish than Laloo’s (mis)rule by proxy. No wonder Laloo has been heard referring to Indira Gandhi’s famous elephant ride to Belchi — the ride that eventually brought her back to power after the 1977 defeat.

Manini Chatterjee