If advance estimates of crop production for 2002-03 are to be considered, it is clear that last year’s drought will go down as the worst droughts in recent times. The total production of foodgrains is expected to fall by 28 million tonnes while pulses by 7.5 million tonnes.
An all-round decrease is expected in rice, wheat, pulses and oilseeds. While rabi rice is expected to fall by 22 per cent, wheat production is expected to fall by 4 per cent and cotton by 11 per cent.
There is a loss of 15 million tonnes of rice in the entire year. In wheat, there will be a loss of 3 million tonnes, despite a good winter rain and favourable conditions.
‘‘Inspite of increase in productivity and the area increase, this is the first time when all the production levels have fallen to this extent,’’ said Agriculture Commissioner C.R. Hazra.
Maize production is expected to fall by 32 per cent. Oilseeds are recording a decrease of one million tonnes or minus 24 per cent. Pulses are expected to drop by 13 per cent.
This only goes on to prove that even though Punjab and Haryana are irrigated and have managed to retain their production figures, the states of Rajasthan and UP have proven to be disasters.
‘‘Rajasthan was unable to sow in 20 lakh hectares of land,’’ said Hazra.
The other states that have suffered are Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
Against the average wheat average in the previous years of 26.7 million hectares and 25 million hectares last year, the area covered so far this season is only 25 million hectares. This is seen as the major reason why the shortfall is expected.
This is being seen as one of the rare years when rabi output will be higher than that of kharif but in the rabi-to-rabi comparison it will be lower than the previous rabi output of 99 and 7.5 million tonnes grains and oilseeds respectively.
In the case of mustard and other oilseeds, the production is expected to all due to lack of rains in the sowing period and excessive cold for most part of this month.