Harsh words before make-or-break Tuesday for Hillary

The fresh skirmishing unfolded across one of the most complicated battlegrounds in the race for the Democratic nomination. Both campaigns deployed thousands of paid workers, volunteers and surrogates to strategic points across the state.

Obama, seeking to lock up the nomination, was outspending Clinton two-to-one on television advertising in the state, with a barrage of commercials assailing her health care plan and suggesting that she was captive to special interests. Clinton fired back on Sunday, criticising his health care plan and saying he was going negative to mask his poor performance in last week’s debate.

Voters in Pennsylvania go to the polls on Tuesday, the first to cast ballots since Obama won the Mississippi primary on March 11. The gap made for the longest campaign in a single state since the opening bell of the presidential contest, in Iowa on January 3, and left time for the candidates to bruise each other, and themselves.

“There’s been a lot of discussion over the last several days about how this campaign gets so negative, how we get distracted, how we exploit divisions,” Obama told voters in Reading on Sunday afternoon. “Look, our campaign’s not perfect. There’ve been times where, you know, if you get elbowed enough, eventually you start elbowing back.”

A variety of polls show Clinton with a lead over Obama of five or six percentage points, but that is down from about 16 points only weeks ago. Strategists on both sides agreed the race seemed to be narrowing. The chief questions were whether the increasingly pitched campaign would help Clinton stop her slide or whether Obama had regained his momentum.

At a campaign stop in Bethlehem on Sunday, Clinton reminded voters about last week’s Democratic debate, in which Obama was repeatedly on the defensive about recent gaffes and incendiary remarks made by his former pastor. “It’s no wonder my opponent has been so negative these last few days of this campaign,” she said, “because I think you saw the difference between us.”

In their final drives, both candidates barnstormed Pennsylvania with their eye on two different maps: one for the popular vote, the other for delegates. Clinton desperately needs to win both to narrow the Obama campaign’s edge on both fronts. Obama is also focused on winning delegates to maintain his lead, but he also wants to show he can draw support among the white, working-class voters who have gravitated to Clinton.

In an atmosphere where both sides are hedging their expectations, Clinton aides have refused to say what margin of the popular vote she needs to win to stay in the race. The contest for delegates, who are awarded proportionally based on how well the candidates perform in each Congressional district, is likely to be close, but the pressure is on Clinton to get at least 50 percent of the delegates.

The intensity of Obama’s campaign and his willingness to air negative attacks in recent days suggest he harboured hope of ending the Clinton campaign here or avoiding a major loss that would keep the race alive. Representative Chaka Fattah of Philadelphia, who represents the most delegate-rich district in the state, in Philadelphia, and who supports Obama, said, “At the end of day, if we can carry more delegates and not have her win in the double digits, that would be great.”

This is how the figures stack up for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the eve of the Pennsylvania primaries on Tuesday

•Obama has won more states: 28, compared with 14 for Clinton.

• He has accumulated more votes: 13.3 million, roughly 700,000 more than she has.

• He has raised more money: $237 million, to her $193 million.

• Obama raised $41 million in March and had $42 million available to spend against debt-ridden Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton in April. Clinton reported raising $20 million in March and had $9 million for the primary available at the beginning of April. But she also reported debts of $10.3 million, putting her in the red.

• Overall, Obama had $51 million in the bank at the end of March, with nearly $9 million of that available only for the general election.

• Obama possesses more delegates to the party’s national convention this summer in Denver. He has 1,635.5, while Clinton has 1,474.5, according to a tally by The New York Times. Associated Press puts the figures at 1,645 for Obama and 1,507 for Clinton.

• At stake in Pennsylvania are 158 delegates. The state also has 29 superdelegates.

• Obama thrives among fellow blacks and younger, higher-income, better-educated Democrats, but Clinton has held the upper hand among women, Hispanics and white, working-class Democrats.

• If Clinton exceeds the 10-point victory margin she posted in Ohio, she could make a significant dent in Obama’s edge in the popular vote and reduce his delegate lead. Such an outcome also could amplify her claim to an upper hand in the biggest electoral battlegrounds; Pennsylvania would be her seventh victory.

• Meanwhile, polls suggestedHillary is cruising towards a win in Pennsylvania. Clinton led Obama with 52 per cent of likely voters saying they would choose the former first lady, over 42 per cent for Obama, according to a Suffolk University poll released on Monday.