Halo of vulnerability rests easy on PM

The mandate he enjoys does not stem from leading a 14-party coalition into elections and emerging victorious, which would have lent him a different kind of political and moral authority. The United Front was cobbled together as a post-poll phenomenon when the elections threw up a fractured verdict. Like Deve Gowda, he too was chosen for being the least threat to most, and for not having an independent base. This is going to be the qualification for Prime Ministers heading coalition governments at the Centre in the foreseeable future.

And yet paradoxically Inder Kumar Gujral heads a Government today which may be more representative than many in the past. The UF represents around 45 per cent of the popular vote, which is more than any Congress Government has polled, except in 1984. With power having shifted downwards as a natural corollary of the democratic process over 50 years, more regions and communities are represented in decision-making in Delhi. That is why it has been called a Government of Chief Ministers and there is much to commend Prafulla Mahanta and M.Karunanidhi holding forth about national unity and Farooq Abdullah lambasting Pakistan.

The unitary system of governance with a federal character has given way to a federalism with unitary characteristics, as a perceptive observer of the political scene put it.

But Gujral has failed to take off. At the end of six months in power which he completes tomorrow, his personal integrity remains unquestioned. He brought the political temperature down, up during the reign of Gowda who had thought he could split the Congress Party, and has an excellent relationship with Kesri. He also enjoys better relations with the state satraps than Gowda did.

In some ways, he is stronger than he was when he took over. He managed to have his way about retaining the Laloo’s Ministers belonging to the Rashtriya Janata Dal. His detractors, be it Deve Gowda or Harkishen Singh Surjeet, are side-lined, though to what extent remains to be seen.Even though he has shed his Leftist image to be in tune with present day global realities, he has managed so far to synthesise the Right-Left contradictions within the UF, reflected in Chaturanan Mishra’s preemptive strike against Chidambaram or on the petroleum price hike or on the Insurance Bill.

The conglomerate, some of whom have little respect for the institution of office (of Prime Minister, or Chief Ministers) as they have been used to an anarchical style when they were in the opposition or anyone and everyone can attack him. Kesri’s withdrawal of support to Deve Gowda emphasised the vulnerability of the United Front Government.

It is seen as an interregnum, and this makes the enforcement of its writ that much more difficult.

Having said that, and making allowances for all these constraints, Gujral has been a disappointment. The present political configuration, which weakened his position, could have also been his strength. No constituent of the United Front is in a position to topple him. As things stand, his exit is likely to lead to elections.

It is very difficult for Kesri to form a Government within the 11th Lok Sabha. Having dethroned Gowda, Kesri will not repeat his earlier adventurism easily for that will project him as power hungry. In such a scenario, Gujral could have gone ahead with institutional reform much more forthrightly than he has done so far. Instead, the UF has only come across as a Government of half-initiatives, whether it is on Prasar Bharati, electoral reforms, freedom of information or Lok Pal Bill.

Gujral’s flip-flop-flip ways have done him the greatest damage. They created an impression that he buckles under pressure. The Bhabani Sen Gupta incident may have been a small one but it only underlined the helplessness of the Prime Minister. It was probably the first time that a Prime Minister, attacked in Parliament, had to undo the appointment of an official in his department.

One day he said Queen Elizabeth II should not go to Amritsar, the next day he did a 180 degree turn. Again, it was made out that the Prime Minister would not advance his trip to New York and a few days later Gujral did exactly that to meet Bill Clinton. He talked about fixing a band for the rupee to move against the dollar; the next day the Reserve Bank of India denied it. The list is by no means exhaustive.

To give him credit Gujral has obviously resisted pressure on him by Mulayam Singh and others in the United Front and possibly Kesri, to impose President’s rule in Uttar Pradesh without allowing the Chief Minister a test on the floor of the House, following the withdrawal of support by Mayawati to Kalyan Singh.

It’s a Government failure in Uttar Pradesh and not a breakdown of the Constitution and both the Supreme Court and the Sarkaria Commission have stipulated a test on the floor of the House in such cases.

Gujral aroused many hopes when he came to power. He had a long experience of governance and an insight into issues, having grappled with them over 30 years. But his liberalism is no more in evidence. On corruption, there is complete silence now and governance seems to have sunk to a new low. He has made moves only to retreat. He seems only to want to maximise his tenure as a one-term Prime Minister, when it is not so easy to topple him.Gujral’s weakness is that he does not recognise his strength, and like Hanuman, he has to be reminded of it.