NEW DELHI, June 7: The Yadav war in the Janata Dal has drawn the battlelines in the ruling party and also sharpened the conflict between Prime Minister I K Gujral and his predecessor, H D Deve Gowda.The Karnataka chieftain is believed to have conveyed to the Prime Minister that if his lieutenant, C M Ibrahim is as much as touched, he would break the Government. Ibrahim is seen as a threatened species with a reshuffle of portfolios in the Gujral ministry on the cards after the Prime Minister's return from Nepal.The normally diplomatic Prime Minister minced no words, and that too in another country, when he publicly criticised the handling of the civil aviation policy, taking everyone by surprise. His statement is being seen as a censure of Ibrahim - and a warning to Gowda not to create trouble for him. It is also being seen as a piece of advice to Ibrahim to get his mentor to go easy.Gujral's tough words are also a departure from the kid glove approach which characterised his first month in office. In recent days, Gujral has politely shown Gowda that he cannot be pushed around, and the ``humble farmer'' has been chafing against the treatment.Gowda is not moving alone. He has been working in tandem with both Chandra Shekhar who turned against Gujral after his statement on the refuelling of American planes and took him on in Parliament on the appointment of Bhabani Sengupta and Harkishen Singh Surjeet, who never wanted Gujral to be the Prime Minister in the first place.For several years, there has been no love lost between the CPM leader and Gujral, who were once colleagues in the Communist movement. Surjeet, who was the ``rajguru'' of the Gowda regime, does not enjoy that position in the Gujral Government.Having lost power and failed to position himself for the presidentship of the Janata Dal, Gowda's strategy now is to sharpen the conflict within the party - and the UF - to try and force early elections. He hopes he will then be able to emerge as the consensus choice of the third force again.On the other hand, Gujral's public expression of dissatisfaction with the Civil Aviation Ministry might indicate that he will not shift Ibrahim immediately, or else he would not have issued the warning but just dropped the minister in a swift move.Gujral would not naturally want to open another flank at this stage, when a Mahabharat is already on in the party. Gowda is backing Sharad Yadav. The battle in the Janata Dal has the potential to split the party in Bihar and Karnataka and jeopardise party governments in both states.As far as the Centre is concerned, the split may not affect the Government in terms of numbers but could trigger off a realignment of forces between the Congress and the UF parivar. Though Chacha Kesri is happy with Gujral and will find it difficult to withdraw support to the Government again in a hurry, he will not let an opportunity go by when he can fish in the troubled waters of the United Front.Gujral has reportedly told his confidants that everything possible should be done to avert a split in the Janata Dal. Though he is taking a neutral stance in the contest between Laloo Prasad Yadav and Sharad Yadav, he would naturally like the status quo to persist - that is, for Laloo to remain the party president and for Sharad to continue as the working president.The Laloo camp is openly talking of the Prime Minister's support to the beleaguered Chief Minister though, apparently, it is Laloo who calls up Gujral or S Jaipal Reddy several times a day. The Bihar Chief Minister has also stated that even if the JD splits, there can after all be a 14th constituent of the UF!As far as Gujral is concerned, he was elected from Bihar and the breakup of the JD will only weaken his own position. He may calculate that if Laloo continues as JD chief, it would perhaps be easier to persuade him to step down as Chief Minister in the event of the Governor giving clearance for his prosecution in the fodder scam.A month or two down the line, the question of Laloo's resignation is going to pose an embarrassment for Gujral. Laloo, who is fighting a do-or-die battle, will not allow the deprivation of both positions without hitting back. Pushed to the wall, he will split the party and go to the polls in Bihar in the hope of retrieving lost ground.Sharad too, who seems to enjoy majority support in the JD's national council which constitutes the electoral college for the president's election is not going to sit back meekly. Antagonised by Laloo's behaviour, many senior party leaders favour Sharad.
