General confusion

General Pervez Musharraf dismisses fears of the Pakistani bomb falling into the hands of Islamic extremists as a result of lax security at the country8217;s nuclear installations or a collapse of state institutions. 8220;We are not a banana republic,8221; he told an American television interviewer who raised those fears. Some security experts in this country and the US believe that Pakistan has moved determinedly to secure its weapons facilities and that a fairly sophisticated command and control system is in place. It is understood that the Americans, who maintain fairly close and regular contact at military levels with Pakistan and are concerned about the bomb falling into the wrong hands, have insisted that weapons security be given top priority. Of course, no one can ever be certain that security is foolproof and constant vigilance will be required. But at this stage, one year after military rule was reimposed in Pakistan, it is the other circumstance in which terrorists could get hold of nuclear weapons 8212; thecollapse of state institutions 8212; that is somewhat more worrying.

In relation to the expectations of him which have been high at home 8212; and also exist in some quarters abroad despite his lack of democratic credentials 8212; Musharraf has been a disappointment after one year as Pakistan8217;s self-style chief executive officer. The economy is still sluggish, only good harvests prevent the picture from being totally bleak and the country is still deep in debt from which the IMF remains reluctant to rescue it. Realism however says that there are too many systemic problems with Pakistan8217;s economy and no one could have turned it around in so short a time. But Musharraf has failed even to do the one thing that military heads of government are supposed to be good at: crack the whip. He has not been able to get Pakistanis to pay their taxes. If he had managed to make progress on that one item on his agenda, he would have made political and economic gains and impressed the IMF to boot. Pakistanis and the world might have been more tolerant of his other failures. Above all, governmentsneed to show they can collect taxes in order to command respect in the country.

Progress on other fronts like cleaning up big corruption has been faltering or like his plans for grassroots democracy visible only on paper. His increasing impatience with critics whom he calls internal and external enemies has resulted in repressive measures against the Pakistani media and the sacking or resignation of the urbane information minister, Javed Jabbar. All this suggests the general is beginning to feel besieged by the demands upon him which he is unable to meet. This is not half as disturbing as his inability so far to move against religious fundamentalists and their mentors and sympathisers in the army and other branches of government. In the past in times of political difficulties both popular and military governments have turned for support to religious fundamentalist groups. There is little reason to doubt Musharraf is a secularist but whether he will keep the fundamentalists at arm8217;s length when his problems multiply and his isolation increases is an open question. Finally, withpolitical parties dormant who will succeed Musharraf if he should fail?