Field notes for growth

When we negotiate on the rules of WTO and a diversified agriculture, this past drives us. From the ’80s we have been diversifying the food basket from grains to edible oil, sugar, fruits and vegetables, milk, meat and eggs. Even poor people consume these items, therefore as the per person consumption of eggs goes up — say from 16 to 30 — that of the poor person goes up from 8 to 16 and that of the rich person, from 40 to 60. But eggs and milk are not air conditioners. I heard, while accompanying my wife to the bazaar a few days ago, someone say in chaste Gujarati, “Oh, my God if prices of bananas go up what will poor people eat?” The tariff formulae, special and differential support and investment subsidy exclusions we are negotiating are to keep on encouraging the majority of our farmers in producing and consuming more on a larger scale. The state cannot feed a large number of people through the PDS all the time and widespread and diversified agricultural and rural growth is the only way to reduce poverty, because it generates income where it matters.

There is no question that the nuclear agreement is a big advance as we had argued the last time. Cheaper and better light water reactors, fast breeders and engaging in state of art research, are moves in the right direction. The completion of the nuclear fuel cycle will be our only real guarantee of energy security, because the world and our own lungs won’t let us burn ever increasing quantities of poor grade coal. But we had also argued that regional energy arrangements will be a priority. There are win-win situations which are our responsibility to lead. Bhutan crossed per capita income levels of a thousand dollars with a push from energy cooperation with India and will soon be a developed country. As we reform our energy sector, there will be very profitable opportunities for such cooperation. Even today our power traders pay well for grid transmission. The concept of public-private partnerships was met to take care of glitches by meeting the so called “viability gap”.

I have no idea whether the Iranian gas project has merit. But, more generally, Central, West Asia and also East Asia have the energy surpluses to meet our needs and it is important we explore all options. Energy security may require occasionally not listening fully only to bankers, as the Japanese and the Americans themselves have taught us. More important India’s role in the club of the most powerful nations will be stronger if we participate with well worked out regional strategies and talk development. A famous leader who spelt out the major advance around non-alignment talked about ever-expanding concentric circles of influence. These have to start in the region and in Africa, Asia and Latin America.