Fears over effect of El Nino factor allayed

PUNE, June 29: Even as scientific community the world over has expressed serious concern over the predictions made by the United States cli...

PUNE, June 29: Even as scientific community the world over has expressed serious concern over the predictions made by the United States climatologists that a severe El Nino factor could badly affect the Indian monsoon, Dr Vasant Gowarikar, the progenitor of the 16 parameter monsoon model does not seem to share this opinion.

Climatologists in the US had virtually dropped a bombshell on India last week when they predicted that a severe case of El Nino was in the offing – triggering fears of an abnormal monsoon leading to drought in the country.

Gowarikar, former scientific advisor to the Prime Minister debunked the theory posed by the western scientists and refused to accept the argument that El Nino would necessarily result in a bad monsoon. “This is not so. There have been a number of instances when the country has enjoyed a good monsoon, despite the El Nino factor,” he argued.

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A destructive weather system caused by the warming of the Pacific currents, the El Nino phenomenon is just one of the 16 parameters which are taken into account while preparing the long range forecast by the Indian monsoon model unlike US scientists who just consider three to four factors, said Gowarikar.

During 1988, the US experts had predicted that it may just be a normal monsoon, but Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) officials had predicted an excellent monsoon, he said. Significantly, this was one of the best three monsoons to hit the country during the century, he averred.

For Kolkata, the IMD has forecast mostly cloudy skies with light to moderate rain or thundershowers on most days through Panchami.

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