Fate of UN’s Kyoto Protocol after 2012

It is a pact agreed by governments at a 1997 UN conference in Kyoto, Japan, to reduce greenhouse gases emitted by developed countries by 5.2 percent of 1990 levels from 2008 to 2012. A total of 163 nations have ratified the pact.

Governments had agreed to tackle climate change at an “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Kyoto is the follow-up and is the first legally binding global agreement to cut greenhouse gases.

When

Kyoto has legal force from February 16, 2005. It represents 61.6 per cent of developed nations’ total emissions. The United States, the world’s biggest polluter, has pulled out, saying Kyoto is too expensive and wrongly omits developing nations.

How

Countries overshooting their targets in 2012 will have to make both the promised cuts and 30 percent more in a second period from 2013. Only the 39 relatively developed countries have target levels for 2008-12 under a principle that richer countries are most to blame and so should take the lead.

The European Union set up a market in January 2005 under which about 12,000 factories and power stations are given carbon quotas. If they overshoot they can buy extra allowances in the market or pay a financial penalty; if they undershoot they can sell them.

Developed countries can also earn credits to offset against their targets by funding clean technologies, such as solar power, in poorer countries.

Where We Stand

India, which ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, is not subject to targets for reducing greenhouse gases. However, there is a bit of controversy as it has signed the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, an international non-treaty agreement among Australia, India, Japan, the People’s Republic of China, South Korea, and the US— these countries account for 50 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. It was announced last July and launched in January 2006. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, it allows member countries to set their goals for reducing emissions individually, with no mandatory enforcement mechanism, and also focuses on technology transfer to reduce emissions.

The 6th What Next

The timeframe of the Kyoto Protocol is till 2012. It is seen as only one step in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and will be modified till the target is met. Since the protocol’s biggest current problem is its supposedly high emission control targets, one scenario post-2012 visualises lowering that target. The developed countries push for considerations such as the nature of a country’s economy (resource-based and/or energy intensive), temperature and whether or not it is a net energy exporter — and so providing other countries with opportunities to switch to cleaner sources of fuel. Or, like the Asia-Pacific partnership, allow countries to set their own goals.