Fast Forward

They want you hooked and nothing will stop the telecom majors from reaching their target. 2004 is going to be a year of seamless wireless connectivity. Two important developments point to this. First, the unified license regime which came into place last year. It allows roaming on CDMA phones like Reliance and Tata Indicom. When cheap telephony is available on the go, no wonder analysts are predicting that mobile numbers will overtake landlines. As they have already in Chandigarh and Vadodara.

An even bigger development expected is the introduction of pre-paid services in CDMA phones. More than 75 per cent of revenues in the cellular market come from the pre-paid segment. At present GSM operators like Hutch, Airtel and BPL get their volumes from this segment. But with the cheaper CDMA providers stepping in, the playing field will just get bigger. ‘‘Fuelled by the pre-paid services, the (subscriber) base can reach something like 35-40 million by next year end and we will have a major chunk of it,’’ says YVL Pandit, chief operating officer, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra).

IPO

Initial Public Outburst

RIDING high on the market bull, companies are preparing to lap up investors money through Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). Newspapers are already flush with names of several IPOs coming up in the next few months. These include the much-awaited Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Patni Computers and even lesser-known companies like A to Z Superstore.com Ltd. ‘‘Every piece of the jigsaw is in place,’’ says S Ramesh, head, primary markets, Kotak Mahindra Capital. ‘‘The fundamentally good economy makes us very positive about the initial public offering (IPO) market.’’

According to Prithvi Haldea of financial-research firm Prime Database, nearly 600 companies wish to raise over Rs 50,000 crore, for a variety of reasons—public sector units for capital (Power Finance Corporation and National Thermal Power Corporation), residual sale (CMC and IBP), divestment (ONGC and Gas Authority of India Ltd), banks for capital (Central Bank of India and Punjab & Sind Bank), for market valuations (Tata Consultancy Services), for venture capital exit (UTV and Secure Meters), and for expansion (Biocon and NDTV).

VENTURE CAPITALISTS

Destination India

Money. The next 12 months should see more money coming from venture capitalists, especially from the United States and European markets. This time around they will looking at sectors beyond their favourites—IT and IT-enabled services. New attractions are biotechnology and life-sciences.

The Swiss, for example, are very keen to invest in these areas. BTS Investment Advisors will be managing a fund of $50 million for investment in India on behalf of their clients, one of which is the Swiss Federal government. ‘‘I’m very bullish on certain types of biotech and life science products that are being developed in India,’’ says Pramod Shedde, president and CEO, BTS Investment Advisors. In February, a team of 20 VCs with a cash chest of nearly $10 billion— mostly from Silicon Valley—will be coming to India to identify more opportunities. ‘‘I believe there will increased investments in cross border companies and also direct investments in Indian companies,’’ says Sanjay Subhedar of US-based venture capitalist firm Storm Ventures.

COMMODITY CRAZE

Gold Glitters

It’s been around for less than six months, but trading in commodity futures is expected to set records that no Indian stock market can match. As its teething problems pass, this market should be ready to take off by 2004 end.

‘‘In the next five to ten years it will become bigger than the stock markets,’’ prophesises Joseph George of broking firm Geojit. ‘‘By next financial year end, trading levels will be 10 times more than what they are at present.’’