Considering that it is the wettest monsoon in Delhi in decades and it had been raining steadily till noon on August 15, Rashtrapati Bhavan officials were apprehensive about holding the President’s At Home on Independence Day in the gardens. But when it was suggested to President Abdul Kalam that it might be safer to host his tea party indoors. Kalam demurred ‘‘I have talked to Him and it will not rain’’ he assured. Kalam’s prediction on the basis of divine communication proved extraordinary accurate, up to a point. The skies remained clear until Kalam made his ceremonial exit, but immediately after the President reached his residence there was a downpour. Guests waiting in line for their cars would have got drenched except for the fact that the organisers had thoughtfully procured a 1000 umbrellas to meet just such a contingency.Allied troubleThe manner in which Prime Minister Vajpayee reacted to Mulayam Singh Yadav’s accusation in Parliament that his lieutenant Amar Singh’s residence had been raided by excise officials took political observers by surprise. Vajpayee did not just clarify that the BJP had no role in the raids, but by using the Hindi expression kargujari seemed to express disapproval of the Mayawati government’s actions. BSP MP Rashid Alvi has, it is learnt, sent a chit to Vajpayee inquiring why the government was speaking about its ally in UP without due respect. The PM has not responded.Way off tangentSome of the speeches during the no-confidence motion in Parliament had nothing whatsoever to do with the subject under discussion. The MPs utilised the opportunity to dwell on their own pet hobby horses. BSP MP Rashid Alvi focused on attacking Mayawati’s arch rival Mulayam Singh, even raking up the old Bijnore communal riots. TDP leader Yerran Naidu hit out at his Cong rival from Andhra Janaradhan Reddy. Maneka Gandhi outlined the development of her constituency in Pilibhit ever since she took over. Vasundara Raje Scindia launched into a campaign speech against Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot.Mulayam Singh Yadav hinted darkly of an International Cricket Council link to the murdered UP poetess Madhumita Shukla and a BSP minister. Yadav’s new-found interest in cricket was attributed by some to the fact that BCC chief Jagmohan Dalmia has become friendly with a UP business house close to the SP leader. But it was maverick Akali Dal (M) MP Simranjit Singh Mann’s concluding remarks when he recited the nursery rhyme ‘‘Georgy Porgy Pudding and Pie’’ which left the House completely flummoxed.Reigning in ModiThe Ministry of External Affairs sat for over 10 days over Gujarat CM Narendra Modi’s request to go abroad. The Indian High Commission in London had alerted the Foreign Office that Modi’s visit to England could prove embarrassing sparking off anti-Modi demonstrations. The High Commission also warned that there was a possibility of Modi’s arrest. The Gujarat Chief Minister, furious with the MEA’s position, held External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha personally responsible, only to discover that the Foreign Office had got clearance from the PMO.Modi’s trip to the UK and Europe to encourage investment from NRIs was finally approved after the DPM Advani intervened on his behalf and the Law Ministry assured that no substantive legal case could be made out against Modi for the killing of Muslims. The MEA reluctantly granted Modi permission, but decreed that none of Modi’s ministers and most of his officials would not accompany him so that the visit could be kept low key.Sledgehammer tacticsA no-confidence motion, where the Opposition has to demonstrate that the government has lost its majority or moral right to govern is a powerful parliamentary weapon which is not to be used lightly. It is a decade since the last time no-confidence motion was raised during Narasimha Rao’s tenure. Then there was a very real threat that the government could fall and it was bailed out because of the last minute defection of five JMM MPs. Votes of confidence where the government has to take the initiative to prove its majority — as when the Gujral government and the first Vajpayee government fell — are far more common.The Congress party’s insistence on the no-confidence motion was not to demonstrate the NDA Government’s lack of numbers, but to show case Sonia Gandhi’s new found confidence and reinforce her position as leader of the entire opposition in the run up to the general elections. Other Opposition parties were less enthusiastic about the idea. Mulayam Singh had misgivings over the advantage of introducing the motion at the fag end of the NDA’s term. The Left parties feared that the move would simply diffuse the discussion on corruption in Defence deals.The biggest drawback is that for the next six months no one can bring a vote of no-confidence against the government. The last year of a government’s five-year term is normally the most vulnerable. Allies sensing that the ruling party might lose power in the coming elections are prone to switch sides, particularly if the government fares badly in a pre-general election poll. The Opposition by tying its hands has assured the government a trouble-free next six months!
