CSO puts GDP growth rate at 8.1% this fiscal

Robust agriculture performance is expected to push gross domestic product growth to 8.1 per cent in fiscal 2003-04 as against 4 per cent recorded in the previous year. The advance estimate of GDP for 2003-04 released by the Central Statistical Organisation has pegged growth in the agriculture sector at a whopping 9.1 per cent compared to a negative 5.2 per cent in the previous fiscal. The manufacturing sector is expected to post a 7.1 per cent growth compared to 6.2 per cent recorded in 2002-03.

According to Planning Commission senior adviser Pronab Sen, whose calculations almost match the advance estimates, the GDP figures might go up slightly as the Rabi production may be greater than what has been estimated. Dr Arvind Virmani, director, ICRIER said that the projected GDP growth of 8.1 per cent is understandable considering that the GDP growth for 2002-03 has been re-estimated downward at 4 per cent instead of 4.4 per cent. “However, the projected over 9 per cent growth of the agriculture sector is much dependent on the Rabi crop,” he added. Centre for Policy Research president Charan Wadhva said that the advanced growth projection in the agriculture sector was more or less achievable as last year the base figure was extremely low. “Last year due to the widespread droughts, the agriculture sector recorded a negative growth. Considering that, 9.1 per cent is not an exaggerated figure,” he added.

According to the figures released on Monday, GDP at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices in the year 2003-04 is likely to attain a level of Rs 14,24,507 crore, as against the quick estimates of GDP for the year 2002-03 of Rs 13,18,321 crore, released on January 2004.

The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is likely to show a steep increase of 9.1 per cent during 2003-04, mainly due to the increase in production of agricultural crops. The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors is placed at 10.9 per cent. Financing, insurance, real estate and business services, is expected to show a growth rate of 6.4 per cent during 2003-04, on account of 11.6 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 12.3 per cent growth in bank credit during December 2002 to December 2003. The national income is expected to rise by 8.4 per cent in comparison to the growth rate of 3.5 per cent in 2002-03. The per capita income in real terms is likely to hit Rs 11,684 as compared to the quick estimate for the year 2002-03 of Rs 10,964.