Cong hopes to make a killing on Rajiv murder

The UF had blinked first when Kesri withdrew support to H D Deve Gowda earlier this year, and the initial unity of the Front cracked under pressure. It was the DMK which first asked Gowda to step down in the interest of UF’s survival.

While making a strong statement today to establish his bonafides, Sitaram Kesri has bought time and covered his flanks. Only half the Lok Sabha MPs were present at the CPP meet today. This was inevitable because MPs are not known to come two days before the start of Parliament. The CPP meet was curiously advanced by two days this time. Kesri may hope for counter pressure to develop from among the Lok Sabha MPs of his party against an immediate poll.

This however seems unlikely. No Congress MP, whatever be his private view about elections, can afford to make a case now for a climbdown on the Jain Commission Report. The consultations with MPs, after all, are taking place in groups and not individually.

There was also a change of mood discernible in the Congress MPs today. Those from the South are more ready for a poll, and feel they stand a good chance of winning in Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh where the tide may be turning against incumbent governments.

What is however most important is that many Congress MPs feel they have managed to get hold of an issue which is emotive. This is very important for them for they feel the party leadership is not likely to get them votes in a poll.

Photographs of Rajiv Gandhi on posters, they say, may fetch them some votes. They realise that the present situation of being neither in the Government nor in the Opposition cannot continue for long and they will have to go to the polls sooner or later.

Kesri also decided to ascertain the views of the MPs because he does not want the onus of the decision on himself, if it backfires. He came in for flak for withdrawing support to Deve Gowda and also in Gujarat without consulting party colleagues.

Sonia Gandhi, who the Congress president consulted, said she wanted justice to be done but did not give the party chief any steer on what the Congress should do in the present situation.

In any case, Kesri has to wait till November 19 when the report is expected to be tabled in Parliament, for the party cannot take a decision like this based on newspaper reports.

There are four scenarios developing. One, that the DMK goes out of the Government, and the Congress gets a face-saver. Two, that the pressure of MPs compels Kesri to go in for a withdrawal of support. The third scenario is one in which Gujral recommends the dissolution of the Lok Sabha to the President.

Once Kesri realises that he has no other option, he is likely to warn Gujral and the PM may then move on dissolution. This would preempt any move by the BJP to try and form a Government.

The fourth scenario however is one where the BJP has another shot at forming a Government. It could do this by splitting the Congress. The party has been in touch with Congress leaders but this is not going to be easy. Now that Kesri has upped the ante on Rajiv’s assassination, there would be no issue on which a group would leave the parent party. The BJP could try and wean away regional groups, starting with the DMK. But again this is not going to be easy.

For neither the TDP, nor the AGP will make common cause with the BJP at this stage for the simple reason that they have chunks of Muslim constituents in their respective states who they depend on for votes, and they realise they may have to face an elections very soon. Chandrababu Naidu also relies on 4-5 per cent Communist votes in Andhra Pradesh which he would be loath to alienate by going with the BJP. There is talk about the possibility of a Government of national unity, but this has been more a paper idea than anything else.