In 1996, Uri had surprised everyone when despite a boycott called by militants, 70 per cent of the electorate had turned out to vote in this border constituency touching the Line of Control. Ironically, now the disaffection is much higher, and going by the way the wind is blowing, the National Conference will find it tough to retain this safe seat. The party’s Mohammad Shafi, an Education Minister in the NC’s outgoing government, is locked in a tough contest with Congress’s Taj Mohi-ud-din (the third candidate may end up an also-ran). Shafi has represented Uri for five consecutive terms since he first jumped into the fray as an Independent in the ’70s. Last time, he beat Taj by an emphatic margin of 8,000 votes. But since then, Taj has diligently wooed the Gujjar population, the traditional vote bank of Shafi who account for around 45 per cent of the electorate, and the Paharis. A Gujjar himself, Taj is considered an outsider by some voters as he hails from Jammu division of Kathua, but he hasn’t let that cripple him. ‘‘In 1996, he had a vote share of 29 per cent, but over past six years, he has grown close to the people here,’’ says a voter, Sheikh Eijaz. ‘‘He has built a house in a constituency village so he can stay in touch with people. This is unlike Shafi who hardly finds time to visit.” The NC candidate has been trying to make up in the past fortnight, canvassing in villages and trying to undo the damage done to his image by cronies accused of having grabbed all the spoils of power. Even a disenchanted Eijaz admits: ‘‘Shafi saheb has done so much for Uri over 20 years, like setting up schools, hospitals, electrifying remote villages, providing drinking water. He has lifted Uri’s status by providing jobs to the youth.’’ However, over the past six years, ‘‘people close to him have cornered all development work. They have created a wedge between the people and Shafi saheb by obstructing access to him.’’ Besides Gujjars, Shafi would be relying on loyal Paharis, who constitute around 20 per cent of the electorate. ‘‘Paharis more or less have voted for him, but they tend not to come out in large numbers. If they decide to stay at home, it would have an affect on the election result,’’ says an NC supporter. The constituency has 57,000 voters spread over 102 villages. Unlike last time, when there were five candidates in the fray, there are three now and so the division of votes is likely to be lesser. The rallies in the area have drawn top leaders. Last week, NC chief ministerial candidate Omar Abdullah went on a whistle-stop tour of the constituency. Then came state Congress president Ghulam Nabi Azad, who toured the area drawing decent crowds.
