Barely a month ago, a riot-scarred Gujarat seemed to be in the BJP’s pocket. By naming an ex-RSS worker Shankersinh Vaghela as the new state chief, the Congress hopes to take on chief minister Modi. Darshan Desai reports on the changing equations On the morning of February 28, when former Congress MP Ehsan Jafri cried for help with a mob gathered outside his Gulbarga Society house, no one , not even Congressmen, came to his rescue. Jafri was reportedly killed later that afternoon. Since then, the Congress party in Gujarat had gone into a coma. Ironically, with the election of Shankersinh Laxmansinh Vaghela, an ex-RSS man, as the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) chief, the Congress has risen as if from the grave. Galvanised from their stupor the Congressmen today are suddenly shouting: ‘‘Dekho, dekho kaun aaya, Narendra Modi ka baap aaya.’’ For the Bharatiya Janata Party he is a red rag in front of a raging bull. As soon as he stepped into the arena Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi called for the dissolution of the assembly. ‘‘The Assembly was dissolved to give as little time to Vaghela as possible. If the polls are held in late September or early October, he will have had only two months. But for Vaghela, even this time is adequate,’’ says one senior BJP leader, indicating all too well that the saffron party has hit the panic buttons over their one-time colleague now heading the Opposition. While his detractors perceive him as a brazenly ambitious and overrated man, his admirers see him as a valuable asset. The truth is that party workers across the political divide are in awe of him. Ever since his youth, Vaghela has never let the different opinions about him bother him in the least. One day, while still in college, some miscreants decamped with his motorcycle. In hot pursuit, he traced the gang to a slum and managed to rescue his bike, but not before a scuffle. Years later, as Gujarat Chief Minister in 1997, he ordered the arrest of Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Pravin Togadia after the latter, a la Bal Thackeray, announced that Gujarat would go up in flames if he was touched. ‘‘Vaghela ordered us to get Togadia anyhow within 24 hours. He scoffed at suggestions that there may be a law and order problem,’’ recalled an official. They are the Tyson and Holyfeld of Gujarat’s politics, slugging it out and changing corners. The rivalry between Shankersinh Vaghela, newly appointed president of the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee, and Narendra Modi, caretaker chief minister, goes back a long way. Both have had their ups and downs and now, the coming Assembly elections may make one and mar the other. For the BJP, the elections — they could be held in September or October, depending on when the Election Commission gives its nod — will be yet another opportunity to test its Hindutva card in the state it has always seen as a laboratory. Party leaders believe that the Godhra carnage and the violence that followed have consolidated the Hindu votes across the state for the BJP. As Modi’s one-time compatriot, Vaghela is only too aware of the tactics his bete noire is likely to use, as well as the chinks in the enemy’s armour. Vaghela, say observers, may retaliate by reviving the KHAM theory, uniting Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis, and Muslims in a pro-Congress vote bank. Adivasis and Dalits constitute 15 per cent and 7.5 per cent of the total votes in the state, respectively, while Muslims make up another 12.5 per cent. In addition, former chief minister and OBC leader Madhavsinh Solanki — he was the one to come up with the KHAM theory — could win for Vaghela the support of the OBCs, who accounts for 45 per cent of the state’s 3.24 crore electorate. Vaghela himself, too, commands considerable influence over this section of voters. The Congress will also be counting on the Muslims and backward class people, who turned up in large numbers to greet Vaghela when he was appointed GPCC president in Ahmedabad last week. Riot-battered Muslims in other parts of Gujarat, too, have hailed Vaghela’s appointment. ‘‘The minority community’s reaction to this development is natural. After all, the state did not witness a single communal incident during Vaghela’s one-and-a-half years in power,’’ says Congress MP Madhusudhan Mistry, a Vaghela confidant. The acute water and power shortage the farm community across Gujarat is facing may also come handy for Vaghela. Known for his aggressive campaigns, Vaghela has called a huge farmers’ convention at Deesa in North Gujarat on August 4. It would surprise no one should the Congress leader blast the Modi government for ignoring the plight of peasants. Vaghela will also be touring south Gujarat and Saurashtra — areas where the post-Godhra disturbances had little impact — extensively in the near future. to expose the Modi government’s ‘‘failure on all fronts’’. In fact, barring certain pockets in urban centres, there seems to be no post-Godhra polarisation in other parts of the state, especially in rural Gujarat. To counter the ruling BJP’s Hindutva agenda, the new GPCC chief has promised the people of Gujarat a ‘‘riot-free’’ state, with the opposition Congress already stressing on ‘‘peace and prosperity, progress and development’’ as its poll plank. It remains to be seen whether the electorate responds to Modi’s agenda or to that of his arch political rival.
