Business outlook improves, reveals CII survey

Further, the number of the optimists have more than doubled to 38% from 16% in the last survey. The 51st business outlook survey relates to the actual performance of the Indian industry during October-March 1998-99 and the forecast for April-September 1999.

About 38% of the respondents to the survey are manufacturers goods, 32% are manufacturers of capital goods, 12% are manufacturers of consumer goods both durable and non-durable while ten% are manufacturers of basic goods, eight% other sector companies. According to a preliminary analysis of the latestsurvey, the number of those who expect the present trend to continue were 40% compared to 37% in the previous survey.

Of the responding corporates those expecting to authorise higher capital expenditure have increased from 45% in the previous survey to 63%. As a percentage of the total response a break up of the respondents predicting an increase shows that 32% expect higher capital expenditure between 5 to 10 % 15% between 10-20% six% between 20-50% and ten% above 50%.

Of the respondents, 37% expect of authorise less capital investment during the same period as against 55% in the previous survey. As a percentage of the total response, a break-up of those expecting lower capital expenditure shows that 20% expect it to decrease between 5-10% six% between 10-20% four% between 20-50% and seven% above 50%.

The survey reveals a return to stability on the prices front with 80% of the respondents expecting the inflation rate to be within the five to ten% range as against 59% in the previous survey.

Only20% of the respondents expect an upward pressure on inflation and the inflation rate to exceed ten%. While 89% of the respondents expect an increase in production, 11% foresee a decline in production in their organisation.

After a tardy growth during most of 1998-99, industrial production is again expected to record a moderate growth during the next financial year, 24% of the respondents have forecast a production growth in their organisation to be between 0-5% and 27% foreseeing production growth to be between 5-10%.

A moderately high 38% of the respondents forecast a high growth in production of above ten% as against only 17% in the last survey. The respondents foreseeing negative growth of production during 1999-2000 have decreased to 11% from 24% in the previous survey.

The respondents projecting an increase in employment have increased from 39% in the previous survey to 54% in the current survey. A break up of those projecting an increase as a percentage of total respondents shows that 39% of therespondents envisage an increase in employment between 0-5%. Eleven% between 5-10% and four% expect employment to increase above ten%.

Of the respondents, 46% expect lower employment in their organisation down from 61% in the last survey. A break up of those who foresee a decline in employment in their organisations from the current levels shows the 33% expect the decline to be between zero to five%, ten% between 5-10% and three% above ten%.

Low to moderate levels of capacity utilisation reflects the lull in demand in the economy and the low growth in production, the survey added.

While only 21% of the respondents achieved capacity utilisation above 80% of the respondents, 47% reported a capacity utilisation between 61-80%, 23% between 41-60% and nine% reported a capacity utilisation of below 40%.

About 34% expect to achieve capacity utilisation above 80% in the next six months, 45% of the respondents reported a capacity utilisation between 61-80%, 15% between 41-60% and six% reported a capacityutilisation of below 40%.

A comparative look at the projections in the last survey against the actual performance as reported in the current survey shows that against 18% respondents projecting more orders in the last survey, 46% experienced more orders in the previous six months.

Those projecting more orders in the next six months are 57% while those projecting the same trends to continue are 27% and those foreseeing lower orders are 16%. In the past six months the value of output was higher for 45%, stagnant for 28% and lower for 27% of the respondents.

While 31% of the respondents expect profit margins to improve, 34% expect same trends and 35% foresee lower profits during the next six months. In the past six months the profit margins were higher for only 22% of the respondents, same for 29% and lower for 49% of the respondents.