Blowing hot, blowing cold

Perturbed by the Indian Meteorological Department’s below-normal forecast for the forthcoming south-west monsoon, policymakers and farm...

Perturbed by the Indian Meteorological Department’s below-normal forecast for the forthcoming south-west monsoon, policymakers and farmers are gazing skywards. However, there are a few indications from some met stations around the world that certain conditions might build up to ensure a good monsoon.

The four-month south-west monsoon usually begins from June and, usually, the forecast is made in May. This year, because of the new model, it was possible to advance the forecast date. But the feel-goodness ends there. Union Water Resources Minister Arjun Charan Sethi perhaps summed it up while inaugurating a seminar on acute water shortage in Delhi this week, saying, ‘‘A panic situation of possible water shortage in the country has been created due to the IMD prediction of not so good monsoon rainfall.’’

True, in its tentative forecast (the final forecast will hinge on a study of the El Nino phenomenon till June), the IMD has indicated that the monsoon rains would be below normal. But it also said there is only 21 per cent probability for a drought this year.

Story continues below this ad

Much to the relief of the IMD, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast has predicted gradual cooling down the El Nino phenomenon, which can result in better monsoon rains. In addition, the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that the El Nino’s opposite phenomenon, La Nina, would mean excess rains.

Moreover, the pre-monsoon rains from March this year have been quite encouraging. The country has received an average rainfall of 59 mm, against the normal of 55.8 mm. The US-based Centre for Ocean, Land and Atmosphere Studies (COLA) has predicted heavy rains in northeastern states and moderate rains in Kerala, south interior Karnataka, coastal Karnataka, Uttaranchal, J&K, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar this week. But none of this negates the fact that the country still needs a good monsoon this year.

While experts like Dr Murari Lal of the Centre for Atmospheric Science in the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, say that the early heat wave makes it difficult to predict the nature of the monsoon behaviour, the IMD is banking on a western disturbance over J&K to bring some showers.