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In the end, it was a stop-gap arrangement that had stretched on for longerthan was its due. Ever since Ram Prakash Gupta was anointed as U...

In the end, it was a stop-gap arrangement that had stretched on for longerthan was its due. Ever since Ram Prakash Gupta was anointed as UP chiefminister after Kalyan Singh’s exit from the BJP, there has been seriousspeculation that he would be asked to step down. It was clear that thenon-descript Gupta just happened to be the lucky one whose name was pulledout of the hat at the end of an inconclusive power struggle among threeheavyweight contenders. He profited from being deemed lightweight enough tobe the compromise candidate for the job of leading the government of thecountry’s politically most crucial state. At that point of time, Rajputleader Rajnath Singh’s claim to the throne was successfully thwarted byrival factotums Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon.

Over the year that followed, this impasse continued and Gupta, hardly knownwithin his party and not at all outside it, continued to be chief minister.Now, with Kalraj Mishra recently accommodated as chief of the party’s stateunit, the choice was arguably simpler. And with local body elections roundthe corner, along with the prospect of toppling games in UPpost-Uttaranchal, there was just no delaying the moment of decision.

Basically, the removal of Gupta and the appointment of Union SurfaceTransport Minister Rajnath Singh in his place by the BJP high command waswaiting to happen for a long time now. The question for the BJP is thishas the change of guard come too late? Will Rajnath Singh’s touted politicaland organisational acumen be able to retrieve the situation for his party inUP? Will it reverse its visibly sagging fortunes in the state testified toby the results of the recent panchayat elections, by-polls, opinion pollsand surveys? All the straws in the wind indicate that the BJP has lost vitalground in UP and that it might already be too late for the party in thatstate.

With Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s BSP emerging asfrontrunners, the BJP may have been left too far behind in the race and theGupta government’s dismal performance may have taken care of the rest. WillRajnath Singh be able to perform the miracle his party requires of him?Notably, Singh’s taking over as chief minister also signals a crucial shiftin the BJP’s electoral strategy in UP. By opting for the Rajput leader aschief minister on the heels of appointing Kalraj Mishra, a Brahmin, as stateunit president, the party has sent out a loud message: In the run-up to theassembly elections, the BJP will focus on consolidating its upper caste votebank.

It would seem that the party has reconciled itself to the loss of thebackward caste vote in the state be it to the SP, the BSP, or other sundryclaimants like Kalyan Singh’s RKP, Ajit Singh’s outfit and the Apna Dal. Itremains to be seen whether the change of guard in UP will pay any dividendto the BJP in the assembly elections that are due next year. It would dowell to remind itself, though, that even Singh cannot do it all. There is noshort cut to a more sincere and more arduous wooing of the electorate.