Babel in Baghdad

The high turnout and low violence for Iraq’s third poll in less than a year underlines the enduring Iraqi optimism and lends credibility to the political process to establish self-government. The unexpected good news from Iraq could, however, turn sour once again if the new parliament fails to produce an effective government. The first set of polls last January to elect an interim government saw nearly 8.5 million people show up. The referendum on the constitution last October had nearly 9.8 million participating. On Wednesday, nearly 11 million people—constituting nearly 70 per cent of the registered voters—cast their ballots. Especially heartening is the high participation of the Sunnis, who seemed to distance themselves from the democratic process after Saddam Hussein was ousted. It was their deep alienation that provided the basis for the insurgency.

The high Sunni turn out would inevitably alter the political composition of the 275-member Parliament which will be at the helm of Iraqi affairs for the next four years. While the Sunni numbers will go up, those of the Shia and Kurds are expected to come down. Stitching together a government from this diversity could take weeks after the results are announced. Even more destabilising could be a renewed debate on some key issues that were fudged in the constitution. These relate to the role of Islam, federalism, and sharing of the oil revenues. Managing these challenges would require a strong political leadership that is capable of addressing the collective interests of the Iraqi nation. Paradoxically, the greater the US success in establishing a democratic process in Iraq, the stronger could be public resentment at continuing US occupation. Meanwhile, within the US, political pressures are growing on the Bush administration to downsize military presence in Iraq. If it uses these pressures to good effect, it could reorient the current in-your-face military profile in Iraq to that of a supportive role.

As the prospect of major US force reductions in Iraq looms large, India needs to shed its current stand-offish attitude towards Baghdad and offer substantive assistance to the new government—especially in training its security forces. After all, it has real stakes in the success of the first significant Middle East democracy that is emerging here. New Delhi must now find ways to establish a high level diplomatic contact with the new leadership in Baghdad at the earliest.