When thousands of voters lined up outside polling booths on November 17 in Bandipore and Sonawari constituencies, Kashmir’s overwhelming participation in elections came as a huge surprise. Since then, the Valley has kept its date with democracy surprising cynics and even some optimists. However, one thing is now clear: in a state where regional political discourse has always been dominant, the Congress is emerging as the lone political party which is in a win-win situation. The high voter turnout has put a huge question mark over the traditional wisdom about elections in the state. The only undisputed prediction about the outcome is that Jammu and Kashmir’s new government will be a coalition and for the first time in the state’s recent history, the Congress is the only party which has come up as a natural and necessary ally for either of the two major regional parties — the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).In Kashmir, the contest is intense and bitter between these two parties. While the NC is happy about Budgam, Kupwara and Handwara districts, the PDP feels it is on a winning streak across South Kashmir and Baramulla district. The Srinagar city — a traditional NC bastion — too is witnessing a close fight in several of its constituencies. The Congress, meanwhile, is silently rejoicing in its strength in the border constituencies of Kashmir and expects victory in a few seats in South Kashmir as well.The contest in Jammu province too is unpredictable. It is witnessing a return of Hindutva in its Hindu heartland. For the first time, Mayawati’s elephant too is making its presence felt. The fight for Rajouri, Poonch has been traditionally between the NC and Congress, but this time around the PDP — riding on Muslim sentiment and few influential candidates — has made serious inroads.The district of Doda is the home of former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad where his special attention will certainly help the Congress. But the sibling rivalry of Kishtwar and Doda constituency with Azad’s Bhaderwah constituency has put the NC on a strong wicket. Ladakh, meanwhile, is a direct contest between the NC and Congress and this time the scale seems to weigh more towards the former. As the election proceeds towards its end, the two regional rivals are both getting ready to woo the Congress.It is the rise of the PDP in the past decade that has changed the otherwise direct contest between the regional NC and the national Congress into a triangular fight. Then the smaller parties like the CPI(M), People’s Democratic Front and scores of Independents too have put strain on the NC’s undisputed domination. In Kashmir, the bitter struggle between the NC and PDP has shifted the focus from the Congress party as the villain number 1 in these elections. This has helped the Congress to focus on half a dozen constituencies where they are confident to win. In Jammu, the Congress has managed to engineer a strategic split in the Hindutva forces in select constituencies to ensure victory for its candidates while its stalwarts are also confident to sail through. Several of its candidates are also frontrunners in the Muslim districts of Rajouri, Poonch and Doda. Every calculation regarding the Congress wins in Jammu and Kashmir has already put the party’s tally in double digits. How did the Congress manage to be one among the top three political parties in the state and why is it a compulsory partner in any coalition? The Congress played shrewd politics in keeping itself alive in both Jammu and Kashmir provinces. In Jammu, its leaders deliberately sided with the Amarnath Sangharsh Samiti, raising the bogey of Jammu discrimination and talking about the honour and dignity of Jammu. The party also credited itself with providing the state its first chief minister from Jammu. Ghulam Nabi Azad belongs to Bhaderwah constituency in Doda district. At another level, the Congress portrayed Azad as the representative of Muslims in Jammu province. Then the party focused its developmental work during the previous coalition government considerably in Jammu province, which too goes to its credit. In fact, the Congress played the soft Hindutva card in Jammu province’s Hindu belt, the Azad card in its Muslim districts and development of Jammu across the province. In Kashmir, its leadership either remained silent over the Sangarsh Samiti demand or individual leaders came in support of the Kashmir protests against the economic blockade of the Valley by Jammu. But the general focus of the party in the Valley was on individual constituencies where it felt it had a chance to win. This policy has ensured the party secures enough seats to remain in the contest.The NC and PDP can never align with each other for a variety of reasons. The very existence of the PDP is its anti-NC ideology. The NC too sees the PDP as its enemy who wants to wipe it out of the political landscape of Kashmir. Then the patron families of the two parties — the Abdullahs and the Mufti — have not only political rivalry but personal animosity as well. Thus, it is highly unlikely that the NC and PDP will ever come together to form a coalition government. If the BJP manages to get into double digits in Jammu — which is highly unlikely — neither the NC nor PDP can afford to align with it. Then the number of Independents and other smaller parties too will not suffice for either the NC or PDP to get to the halfway mark. This makes the Congress the only political party that both the NC and PDP will chose as their partner. Only a miracle will turn the Congress irrelevant when J-K goes to form its next government. Every post poll scenario in J-K puts the party on a strong wicket and perhaps this is why its top national leadership has started making a beeline to come for poll campaigning.
