Netas waiting to hit the campaign trail be warned. It’s going to be a cruel April, with temperatures already touching 40 deg C in central-India and elsewhere. It will be particularly hot in parts of Uttar Pradesh (constituencies of star campaigners A.B. Vajpayee, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi), Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
‘‘Already, it’s an oven-like situation in the Indian sub-continent,’’ say forecasters at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) here. ‘‘We are headed for a blistering summer unless India gets a healthy rainfall.’’
According to IITM scientist Nityanand Singh, temperatures are set to inch towards 44 deg C in April and May all over India, barring Kashmir and parts of the N-E. While Bhopal is sizzling at 40 deg C, Lucknow, Hyderabad, Patna, Jaipur, Delhi and Pune follow on its heels. The daytime temperature in Nagpur is pushing 41.8 deg C, five degrees above normal; in Lucknow too it’s 39.8, five degrees above normal.
So, why is it so hot? Singh blames the rise in temperatures to low humidity in the soil. ‘‘Due to below-normal rainfall in the past seven years, the humidity has evaporated.’’
Also, there have been innumerable changes in our weather patterns. For instance, over the past century, the south west monsoon current, which branches out at the tip of the Deccan peninsula, decided the year-round weather of the country. But now, the Bay of Bengal current has weakened, leading to a lesser number of monsoon depressions over the region. ‘‘Earlier, the region had several intense storms during this time of the year, reducing temperature considerably. Today, it hardly crosses two,’’ Singh says.
Then again, the Arabian Sea current is stronger now, leading to above-normal rainfall in Rajasthan and adjoining areas.
As a result, the central highland region, comprising Madhya Pradesh, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are receiving scantier rainfall year on year.
Year 2004 is a La Nina year, bringing hope of a healthy monsoon. ‘‘But, the country is 76 per cent dry. And the scanty rainfall for the past few years has made it worse,’’ adds Singh.