America’s agonising choices

Shooting the messenger of bad tidings, faulting predecessors, or blaming the media for bad news is not the sole prerogative of politicians a...

Shooting the messenger of bad tidings, faulting predecessors, or blaming the media for bad news is not the sole prerogative of politicians and governments in India. As high unemployment continues and reports come in of the daily deaths of American soldiers in Iraq, the Bush administration is under siege and blaming the Opposition and media for its woes. I was with some economic, political and strategic analysts from India who had occasion to interact with a group of eminent Americans led by Henry Kissinger in Washington last week. It appeared obvious that the Bush administration is groping in the dark to deal with the challenges it faces today. It is a prisoner of past rhetoric. More importantly, infighting within the administration, especially in its handling of Iraq, has become endemic.

Proliferation of missile technologies and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities remains a major concern in Washington. North Korea and Iran are the prime targets of current non-proliferation policies. Countries like UK, Australia, France, Germany and Japan have been co-opted in a “Proliferation Security Initiative” to prevent the transfer and shipping of materials and equipment that contribute to such proliferation. Iran and North Korea have received their nuclear enrichment capabilities from Pakistan and their missile capabilities from China. The Americans know that for nearly three decades Pakistan and China have been partners in nuclear and missile proliferation. Yet, we are now advised that China which supplied missile capabilities to North Korea and obviously connived in nuclear transfers from Pakistan to North Korea is a constructive American partner in curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions! Pakistani involvement in missile and nuclear proliferation is ignored. And Iran is being compelled to accept restrictions on its nuclear capabilities that are not applicable to other non-nuclear weapons states like Japan or Taiwan. Should India join a “Proliferation Security Initiative” marked by such double standards?

The US faces similar dilemmas in its war against terrorism. It knows that Pakistan remains the epicentre of global terrorism and the ISI continues to support the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda. Knowledgeable Americans acknowledge that General Musharraf is running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. But when queried about the love they shower on their favorite general, they shrug their shoulders and proclaim he is their best bet. He is, therefore, to be rewarded with legitimacy, political endorsement and generous economic and military assistance, that includes acquisition and upgrading of F-16s. Further, despite denials, New Delhi cannot ignore signs of an US propensity to accommodate elements in the Taliban. American bonafides on this issue will be established only after the CBI is given facilities to interrogate former Taliban Foreign Minister Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil and provided with full details of the Taliban and ISI role in the Kandahar hijacking.

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While US soldiers face prolonged counter-insurgency in Iraq, a vicious turf battle between Colin Powell and Rumsfeld is engulfing the corridors of power in Washington. The Pentagon has erred in backing discredited Iraqis like Ahmed Chalabi and in alienating thousands of Iraqis by peremptorily sacking all those associated with the Saddam Hussein dispensation. The secular Baathists are now making common cause with jihadis from the Arab world and Pakistan. Despite its links with terrorist groups like the Hizbullah, Iran played a constructive role in Afghanistan during the political process in Bonn. Tehran may, however, get tired of the continuous pressure from Washington and stir the pot in Iraq, especially because Washington ignores the role of Saudi Arabia in financing Wahhabi terrorism, while seeking to lay exclusive blame on Iran. And the decision to induct troops from Turkey, whose motives are viewed with suspicion, will only add to tensions.

Even influential friends of India in the Bush administration now aver that India’s role in Afghanistan and Iraq will be “marginal”. Others close to the administration express their disappointment at the lame excuses we resort to like referring to our own security needs to avoid sending troops to Iraq. It is absurd for a country like India that claims to be a major regional power to assert that it cannot spare one mechanised division for peacekeeping because of its obsession with a possible Pakistani threat. We erode our credibility by such assertions. We could candidly acknowledge that with elections around the corner, no government can send troops to Iraq without a national consensus.

While India cannot expect much more by way of understanding of its security concerns from the Bush administration, it is in the economic sphere that the Americans cannot ignore India. Moves to promote cooperation in hi-tech transfers, space and perhaps missile defence are making some progress. While China is regarded in the US as the greatest threat to its domestic industry, there is a recognition that India is in the process of depriving thousands of Americans of their jobs in areas like electronic data systems, back office functions like finance and accounting, or electronic document conversion. Indian companies will also have an increasing back-up role for US institutions in hospital services and R&D. The US will remain our fastest growing market in the export of goods and services — a reality we cannot ignore. There are growing populist calls in America to protect domestic employment and restrict outsourcing to India. The US has also learnt in Cancun that it cannot always coerce developing countries on economic issues. Arun Jaitley deserves all credit for his role there, but we should not forget that groupings and alliances are never permanent. It may be worthwhile to engage with the US and point out the dangers of seeking a partnership with the protectionist Europeans.

Americans and Indians who have met Bush assert that he genuinely holds India and Indian democracy in high esteem. However, because of the Iraq and Afghanistan developments, the India-US relationship has been unable to realise its full potential. We would, therefore, have to conduct our relations with the US in a mature, realistic and transparent manner so that both nations can mutually benefit from the enhanced interaction and trust.