All’s well with Laloo and NDA has only itself to blame

It is the fracturing of the anti-Laloo vote that has brought the NDA down many notches. There was no Vajpayee factor to paper over the differences as in the general elections. Though the BJP, Samata Party and Janata Dal(U) forged an understanding on seats, this did not take place till the last moment and not without public wranglings. Even after the alliance was formalised, there was a lot of heartburn and has been reflected in the large number of rebels who are forging ahead, possibly the largest in post-independent Bihar.

Word of the tussle for chief ministership — which began even before the poll campaign got off the ground — trickled down to the constituents of Ram Vilas Paswan and Nitish Kumar, who are contenders for the hot seat. There were indications that the Kurmis were unenthusiastic about voting for the Dalit candidates put up by Paswan and the Dalits suspicious about the Kurmis, who are seen as supporters of Nitish Kumar.

Clearly in a position to influence government formation, the caste composition of these rebels will decide which side they swerve to and which group forms the ministry. Madhepura turned out to be a watershed in Laloo Yadav’s chequered career when he lost to Sharad Yadav in the 1999 Lok Sabha poll. But his defeat also marked the regrouping of the Yadavs behind him, even as Sharad Yadav was going out of his way to nurse the constituency.

Laloo’s constituents wanted to give him a jolt. But once that was done, the Yadavs wanted to vindicate his honour. It is possible that had Madhepura not happened, the results of the assembly elections might have been different.

Though it is too early to say anything conclusively, the RJD’s leads show that some of the smaller backward castes, popularly known as the Annexure I communities, which comprise 33 per cent of the State’s population and are among the most backward, may have also returned to Laloo’s fold. They had begun to delink from him in the last two Lok Sabha elections. Initial readings show that Laloo’s `forward versus backward’ slogan in this election had some impact.

With the firming up of the Yadav support behind him again, the Muslims had no other option but to back him though in the last three elections they have been chafing at the way they are being taken for granted by him. The Congress was nowhere near a force to make a difference.

The Yadavs have viewed the charges of corruption and misgovernance levelled against their leader as a means employed by upper castes to deprive him — and them — of power which had come to them after a long time.

As things are turning out, neither Paswan nor Nitish may like to leave his safe ministerial berth in Delhi and go to Patna if the assembly turns out to be hung and the NDA is in a position to stake claim. Laloo has already claimed that he will put together a government with secular forces.

The CPI and the CPI(ML) have, however, already indicated that they will not support Laloo though it is possible they might abstain.

The BJP’s dilemma on who should head the ministry were the opportunity to present itself has become even more acute.

With the party’s own showing having been less than satisfactory in both Orissa and Haryana, it will be under tremendous pressure from its rank and file to go in for a BJP Chief Minister in Bihar, and more so if it has an edge over Samata Party and the JD(U). Its problem will be to find a backward class leader who commands support. Sushil Mody, a bania — and banias are OBCs in Bihar — is opposed by the Bhumihars in his own party. Imposing an upper caste candidate or even a Dalit has the potential to further unite the backwards in the state and this would give more strength to Laloo.

Forming the government is not likely to prove an easy task in Bihar and managing to keep it going even less easy. Uncertainty is going to dog the steps of whoever heads the next government.