The Uttar Pradesh election result sums up the trends seen during the last 14-odd years, beginning from the time of the Mandal-Mandir phase in 1990. This phase began with the decline of the Congress, the rise of the BJP, Samajwadi Party and BSP. The wheel seems to have turned full circle with the BJP’s decline; but the Congress has yet to rise and the SP and BSP have improved their respective tallies. What kind of a larger picture can be drawn from this confusing scenario?
The Congress realises it can only sweep UP once Mulayam Singh Yadav is finished politically. The freakish nature of support and conflict between the Congress and SP — at the national and state levels — reflects the tussle going on in UP. Indeed, Sonia Gandhi’s resignation and street shows of support are in part aimed at wooing voters in the state. Sonia’s fresh martyr-like stature is bound to generate the much needed intervention from above for a party suffering from a crisis of poor infrastructure.
This intervention would have generated little response, say, in the 2002 Assembly elections. Now the situation is radically different. There is a perceptible shift of the Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims towards the Congress. This is not reflected in the numbers of seats (nine) won by the Congress or its vote share (12). Yet a pro-Congress revival is stark.
Muslims have made the decision to come back to the Congress. In a high profile meeting at Barabanki, before the May 5 polling, Muslims of Avadh decided to vote for Mulayam but garlanded two Congress leaders, one Hindu and the other a Muslim, as their future candidates.
Muslims are slowly edging out Mulayam not just because of his pro-BJP tilt. There is a new mood, a sort of backlash against the caste-communal politics of the previous years. Muslims see an opportunity to defeat the BJP decisively with the Congress weapon. At the same time, they visualise a revival of UP’s composite culture or Ganga-Yamuni tehzeeb.
The recent May 30 rally of Shias and Sunnis in Lucknow, against American intervention, is a case in point. Lucknow is known for its Shia-Sunni conflict. The city is less than 100 km from Ayodhya, site of the Babri Masjid demolition in Avadh, the heartland of Ganga-Yamuni tehzeeb and Hindu-Muslim religious disputes. But, remember that the Babri Masjid-Ram Janambhoomi dispute began in 1855 under British rule but only two years later Avadh witnessed a great show of Hindu-Muslim religious and cultural unity against infidel firangees.
The May 30 demonstration saw Hindu Dharmgurus rubbing shoulders with Muslim Ulemas once again against firangee (in this instance America). The Hindu Dharamgurus were very specific in saying that today Muslim religious shrines are under attack in Iraq, tomorrow Hindu shrines can be targeted in India.
This kind of surprising, often unbelievable developments is part of the post-2004 general election mood. Even elite Brahmins echo this sentiment. The Brahmin tilt towards the BJP was due to the climate of insecurity generated by the social churning and the rise of backward power groups following the Mandal trauma. That threat has passed. It is important to remember the UP Brahmin sees his role in the national perspective.
Dalit posturing, though invincibly pro-BSP, has undergone an important shift. Only bad handling by the SP made Valmikis and Pasis, two large non-Chamar groups (they constitute about 10 per cent in a total Dalit population of 21 per cent), veer towards the BSP at the last moment. Even then, sections of Pasis and Valmikis, even Chamars, especially in eastern UP, voted for the Congress and SP. Dalit are increasingly looking at non-BSP options.
The writer is the author of ‘Lucknow: The Fire of Grace’