All depends on poll outcome and his crackdown at home

Even as the West continues to suggest that Musharraf and Vajpayee meet face to face and settle the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan’s cross-border activities have again started multiplying. Jehadi training camps across the LoC persist. Public opinion in India is unlikely to allow the Government to agree to commence bilateral talks, until Pakistan ceases export of terrorism into India.

Several American observers are sceptical about the General assisting American efforts. They recognise the venomously anti-American public opinion in Pakistan. Yet, American policy-makers seem content with Musharraf’s attempts at dealing with the Al Qaeda and the Taliban within Pakistan. They appreciate that the General has stood by them during Operation Afghanistan: The West, led by the US, have provided Pakistan almost $8 billion, by way of assistance between October 2001 and today.

India does not have much faith in the General’s pledge. To be fair to him, Pakistani rulers who preceded him, too, seem to have believed that force and deception must govern their relations with India. India has always recognised Kashmir as a bilateral dispute between the two countries. We are committed to settling it with all other disputes: bilaterally, peacefully and through a dialogue.

For this to happen, however, we believe that an atmosphere of mutual faith and trust, and a certain minimum amity must exist between the two countries. As the Agra Summit proved, an attempt to settle differences without building an atmosphere and ambience conducive for fruitful talks can never be expected to work.

Meanwhile, Musharraf has been busy amending the country’s Constitution, arming himself with constitutional authority for excluding Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto and their parties from contesting the October elections. October is also the time when the Indian Constitution requires elections to be scheduled for Jammu & Kashmir.

The following factors are likely to determine the future:

l The ability of Musharraf to demonstrate even-handed integrity in dealing with the Al Qaeda-Taliban terrorism on Pakistani soil and the ISI-exported terrorism into J&K

l The outcome of the two elections

l The General’s ability to impose his will on the people of Pakistan, to make his country effectively liberal, modern, and democratic and avoid Jehad

l His capacity to seek genuine friendship with India.

A working relationship will require cooperation in all areas, including building people-to-people contacts, reduction in defence expenditure in both countries and a general atmosphere of give-and-take, especially while dealing with J&K.

This will require a serious and sincere pursuit of friendship and togetherness, abandoning hatred and mutual suspicion. The huge mega question is: Are we ready for this?

(The writer is a former foreign secretary and India’s ambassador to Pakistan)