After Lok Sabha, coalition set to retain Upper hand

In the coming biennial polls, the UPA and its supporting parties look set to pick up an additional half a dozen seats. The Congress, with a tally of 67, is likely to add at least two more to its kitty. The SP-RLD may gain four more to take its strength to 12. The BSP may gain one. However, the Congress gains would be neutralised if DMK loses three of its present seven seats, as expected.

The rival BJP, after gains and losses in various states, may lose one seat. However, the biggest loser among its friends will be TDP, whose strength will fall from eight to three after the defeat in the Assembly polls.

Andhra is likely to witness a complete reversal. Of the six seats which fall vacant, the Congress held one seat and TDP five. The TDP, now, is likely to win only one seat, while Congress and its ally, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, look set to win the rest. The TRS, with 26 MLAs, may get one seat from Congress.

In UP, a total of 11 seats are at stake. Given the party position, the SP-RLD alliance may win seven seats, followed by two each by the BJP and BSP. In Maharashtra, which will have six vacancies, status quo will prevail. The Congress may have to pass one of its three seats to NCP, while Shiv Sena and BJP are likely to retain their two and one seats, respectively.

Of the six seats which fall vacant in Tamil Nadu, the DMK, which holds five of them, will lose three to the ruling AIADMK, increasing Jayalalithaa’s strength from nine to 12. Bihar will have five vacancies. RJD may retain its three seats. However, BJP and JD(U) may gain one seat each at Congress and CPI’s expense.

The Congress-JD(S) combine may gain one seat in Karnataka, where polls are due for four seats. The loser would be the JD(U), following the retirement of former CM S.R. Bommai. The BJP-JD(U) combine will be able to win only one seat.

The Congress has to be content with one seat in Rajasthan after its defeat in the Assembly polls. The BJP would bag the remaining three.

Madhya Pradesh, with three vacancies, is also bad news for the Congress. As two of its sitting members retire, the ruling BJP in the state is likely to bag both the seats. The Congress may lose two of the three seats falling vacant in Orissa too, with the ruling alliance partners BJP and BJD sharing them. In Jharkhand, the Congress-JMM alliance will win one of the two seats from the BJP.

The Congress will pick up an additional two seats from BJP—one each in Uttaranchal and Punjab. The Congress can also try its luck for one seat in Haryana, where the ruling INLD will have to depend on BJP, HVP and Independents to win a second seat.

Status quo will prevail in Chhattisgarh. The ruling BJP and Opposition Congress will retain one seat each. That brings us to the unpredictables. Both sides have to contend with mercurial supporters. The SP and BSP can desert Congress any time. On the other hand, TDP and regional parties of the North-east can ditch BJP. Though BJP and AIADMK look set to part company, Jayalalithaa is likely to sail with BJP due to DMK’s presence in the ruling alliance.

The Congress-led alliance, in fact, may see some anxious moments in the Upper House only if both the SP and BSP choose to vote along the BJP camp on any issue.

Another factor are the 12 Independents, who can swing either way, besides one National Conference member, who is not with the NDA presently. The 11 nominated members, who owe their seats to the previous government, are more likely to back the NDA than the UPA.