A victory Keshubhai needs more than before

For the past few months, rivals have been trying to impress upon the central BJP leadership that Keshubhai Patel was incapable of carrying the party along. The BJP’s poor performance in municipal and panchayat by-elections a few months ago was projected as proof of the government’s waning popularity.

A defeat in Bharuch will only corroborate the rivals claims and weaken the Chief Minister’s position. Therefore, Keshubhai Patel, who needs a victory more than ever before, has extensively campaigned in the constituency. So have most of his Cabinet colleagues. Party workers from all over the State been sent to Bharuch to mobilise voters.

The BJP has fielded a former minister Mansukh Vasava, while the Congress and the Janata Dal have repeated Iqbal Kakuji and Chhotubhai Vasava, who had contested in March 1998. Both the Vasavas are Adivasis and Kaukji is a Muslim. This is only to be expected in a constituency which is dominated by Adivasis and Muslims.

The BJP hopes that the support of Hindu voters would help them retain the seat. Claims Industry Minister Suresh Mehta, “The BJP candidate is the only one who will get votes from all sections”. Agriculture Minister Nitin Patel, who is regarded as a confidante of the Chief Minister, said, “There should be no doubt about our victory”.

But others are not so sanguine. “It isn’t an easy situation”, says a party leader, pointing out that while a pro-BJP sentiment had helped the BJP’s Chandubhai Deshmukh in the last election, now there is resentment over price rise and lack of development, particularly in the tribal areas.

Add to this the alienation of Muslims and Adivasi-Christians, thanks to the strong-arm tactics of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bajrang Dal, and the picture is complete, says the leader, and remarks: “The talk of a hands-down BJP victory is sheer bravado”. He points out that Chandubhai Deshmukh, whose death has caused the by-election, had won only by about 11,000 votes.

Naturally, therefore, the Congress and the Janata Dal see a chance. Congress leader and former chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki is “optimistic” that the Congress would snatch back the seat which was once regarded as a party stronghold. Senior party leader Ahmed Patel used to contest from Bharuch before Chandubhai Deshmukh wrested it for the BJP in 1989.