The next five weeks are likely to be crucial in deciding whether the Middle East is going to experience another war or not. US Secretary of State Colin Powell, known to have been moderate in approach to the Iraq crisis, was uncharacteristically forthright in saying the Iraqi declaration totally ‘fails to move us in the direction of a peaceful solution.’ He cited systematic omissions in the 12,000 page declarations to support his argument although no indication was given about the intelligence that the US claims to reject Iraqi protestations. It is significant that France, which has so far favoured a peaceful solution, now seems critical of the Iraqi submissions describing them as incomplete and full of inconsistencies. But there seem to be clear indications that war is neither imminent, nor inevitable.Taha Yassin Ramadan, the Iraqi vice president, has asserted that the declaration is complete and that ‘Iraq is ready to supply all the necessary specifics.’ Other officials have also stated that they are willing to provide clarifications and elaborations wherever required. This is encouraging and so is the statement of Dr Hans Blix, head of UNMOVIC (UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission) tasked to check Iraqi WMD violations in terms of UN Security Council resolution 1441, that Iraq is co-operating well with the inspectors who have visited 130 sites so far. These are all positive signs.On the other hand, preparations for war have, in fact, been stepped up. A war of sorts is already on, with information and psychological pressures being built up by both sides. Yet the UN Security Council is likely to wait until at least January 27 when Dr Blix is expected to present his final report. Thus there is time and opportunity for the international community to try and avert a war that could only bring more misery to the people of Iraq suffering from the effects of wars during the past two decades. Colin Powell has promised to consult with US friends and allies to gain Iraqi compliance. The international community, however, should not rely only on the UN Security Council but make best use of the narrow window of opportunity that seems available at this moment.
