A defining moment for Sharif

Four months short of a normal three year tenure, the Pakistan army chief General Jehangir Karamat submitted his resignation after critici...

Four months short of a normal three year tenure, the Pakistan army chief General Jehangir Karamat submitted his resignation after criticising the Nawaz Sharif government for its failure to create a National Security Council. Although replaced by Lt General Parvez Musharraf, Corps Commander of the 1st Corps at Mangla, the resignation has triggered speculation that Sharif would have actually undermined his position, despite easing out the last powerful opponent from office.

But the situation underwent a complete change after the landslide victory of Nawaz Sharif in the November 1996 general elections. With a brute majority in Parliament, Sharif moved swiftly to repeal the 8th Amendment. The army had lost an important power tool to keep any politician in check. Unable to counteract, the army attempted to keep the debate on a national security council alive.

In the past few months, especially since the nuclear explosions conducted by India and Pakistan, Sharif’s style of functioning has been subject tointernal criticism. Unable to contain the domestic fallout of sanctions, Sharif appeared to have blundered from one decision to another. His decision to go ahead with the construction of the Kalabagh Dam infuriated regional parties in the NWFP and Sind. In Sind, the nationalist parties that had become dormant since the death of G.M. Syed in the early 1990s, saw the Kalabagh Dam as a vehicle to raise political temperature. Sharif’s failure to solve the ethnic problem in urban Sind saw the MQM led by Altaf Hussain quit the alliance.

His "doer" image has taken a severe beating. With rising prices, a weakening revenue situation and a general feeling that Pakistan under Sharif has not been able to ride the storm created by the sanctions, Sharif’s popularity has reached an all-time low.

It was therefore not surprising for General Karamat to have voiced his views on the functioning of the Sharif government at the Naval War College speech in Lahore. His comments, distributed by the Inter Services Public Relations(ISPR), an agency controlled by the army, would mean that the General’s utterances were considered and deliberate.

What could have prompted General Karamat to undertake such a task? With less than four months before retirement, the General possibly perceived that this was as good a time as any to reflect before the uniformed men his perception of the government. The undercurrent of discontent among the armed forces would have been a factor guiding the General. A second factor could perhaps have been to warn the prime minister of the impending disaster, in the wake of growing political opposition, public disenchantment and restiveness in the armed forces. The selection of a new army chief – the frontrunner being Lt. General Ali Quli Khan, brother-in-law of Gohar Ayub Khan, would have been another factor.

For the immediate future, the smooth change from Karamat to Musharraf has signalled that the armed forces appear extremely reluctant to effect a coup d’etat. With Karamat’s removal, Sharif would emergeeven stronger. The expectation is that unlike Karamat who is from the heartland of Punjab, General Musharraf is a Mohajir from Lucknow and therefore with a limited power base. To that extent, his ability to dominate the Pathan-Punjab lobby within the armed forces would be limited.