If the Congress thinks it has got a problem, it is wrong. It has got three problems and, as of now, no solution is in sight. First, the political problem. Having said that the nuclear deal is not the end of political life, the prime minister and the Congress president may have expected some respite. But what are they getting? Bluntly put, humiliation. First, the Left — apparently the CPI, but the CPM didn’t oppose it — wanted the government to say in writing the nuclear deal is off. This is absurd, outrageous even. A rookie politician would know that once you have extracted a commitment in behind-the-door powerplay, publicly rubbing it in is bad form. The Left apparently has no such concern for the Congress. So, in addition, Prakash Karat meets that strange creature, the UNPA, and looks on benevolently as Amar Singh tells the nation that the nuclear deal is now a “national issue”. The Congress’s feelings towards the SP is about the same as Karat’s towards America. But that’s the point it seems. The Left wants Congressmen to really understand where it has got them. So how does the Congress think all this is going down with voters? People at large may not ‘understand’ the nuclear deal. But comprehension is not a problem when the ruling party is being humiliated.Second, the strategic/political problem. As a story in this newspaper on Wednesday showed, India’s uranium shortage is becoming a binding constraint. This problem has been apparent for a long time. But it is under the Congress’s watch that the shortage may become crippling. Potential suppliers are wary of dealing with India until it gets global clearances for nuclear trade. If there’s no progress on the nuclear deal, the 18 months the Congress has left in office may see its government presiding over the worst phase in India’s nuclear programme. That’s awful news for this country’s needs and ambitions. And it’s politically radioactive as far as the Congress is concerned.Third, the diplomatic problem. The America-prodded international near-consensus on giving India the nuclear ‘exception’ wasn’t, of course, Congress-specific. It was a recognition of India’s current and future credentials and status. But it is also true that this was the best time for getting the deal through. What happens, to take just one example, if CTBT comes back on the American agenda; Hillary Clinton has promised to resurrect the Democrats’ favourite nuclear monitoring instrument? The Congress may also be ultimately held responsible for unfavourable changes in the nuclear diplomatic environment. To lesser minds than those who make Congress strategy, it is not immediately clear how any of this, dragged out over months, will make for an inspirational electoral campaign.
