Former Indian ambassador to the US Arun K Singh on the new Trump regime, Indo-US relations, strategies with China and the relevance of the Quad. The session was conducted by Diplomatic Affairs Editor Shubhajit Roy. On re-election of Donald Trump While his re-election has come as a surprise at one level, Trump’s base remained with him as he picked up additional support from different population segments. However, there is also an element of surprise — he was impeached twice by the House, accused of fraud, and accused of ill-treatment, particularly related to women. At the other end was Kamala Harris, marking what was seen as a historic candidacy of an African-American woman, a South Asian woman, and an Indian American woman. Despite this, Trump not only won the Electoral College but also the popular vote (which he lost in 2016). The factors that went against Harris was that the people were focussed heavily on issues like inflation, unemployment and immigration. The Joe Biden administration took several steps to increase investment and job creation but their impact was expected to be long-term, not immediate. So, there was a sense that inflation was impacting the common man. If you look at Trump, he defined certain issues for his campaign: inflation, unemployment, immigration, trade and disengaging from the outside world. On how Trump’s approach may differ in the second term This time, he’s coming in with more experience. In his first term, many pointed out that his team was not organised to move into administration immediately. Now, within three weeks of the election, most of his Cabinet appointments have been done, which is very unusual because normally this is done by January. Second, he will command a greater hold on his administration. The last time, he had to suddenly bring in many people belonging to the conservative, mainstream Republican party, who didn’t fully agree with him on his policies. There was talk that these people would prevent him from making decisions against the normal grain of American politics. This time, it’s Trump who’s going to set the policy. For example, a few things have already been done unusually. The incoming President sends the team that he wants to appoint for vetting by the FBI or the CIA. That has not happened. He has done all the vetting by private agencies that they have contracted. It signals that he continues to be very sceptical about government agencies. Such actions will project him as shaking up Washington and will be popular with his base. On Elon Musk’s role Elon Musk used the channels he controls, like X (formerly Twitter), to promote Trump and his policies. The $100-150 million investment he made in the Trump campaign is perhaps the most profitable political investment ever made as his own companies could have come under federal regulation and scrutiny of the next administration. He will certainly try to use his access to Trump for subsidies, federal support and deregulation that will benefit his companies. But I would say that Donald Trump is Donald Trump. He uses people at different times, gives them prominence, but ultimately he wants to be seen as the only star in that firmament. Both Elon Musk and Vivek Ramasamy co-chair the new Department of Government Efficiency. But when they produce their report, they are not an executive agency but a recommending body, so there's no guarantee that whatever they recommend will be implemented. Musk is invested very heavily in China, as have a few others around Trump. These people would not want high tariffs or a strong posture related to China. At the same time, Trump has appointed people like Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, and Senator Marco Rubio as the Secretary of State, who have been hawkish on China. Going by past experience, Trump will play one faction against the other and he will use different recommendations at different times depending on what suits him politically. On Trump’s policy priorities He will certainly want to end the active phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He and his team have said repeatedly that the support to Ukraine should be curtailed. When the Biden administration got a $60 billion package through Congress to support Ukraine, it took a lot of effort as the Republicans in Congress opposed that. From India’s point of view, it will certainly help because, with the isolation of Russia by the US and Europe, Russia is getting increasingly closer to China. Of course, we have a good relationship with Russia and would certainly not want its dependence or relationship with China to deepen. But the complication here will be that if the European countries feel their interests have been abandoned in this process, then you could end up seeing a divide between the US and Europe. That will have consequences for the transatlantic relationship because if Trump tries to take a more hardline posture against China, he will need Europe. Second, he will have to define the US approach on tariffs because his basic message is that the US has been exploited by other countries, particularly China, in terms of trade and manufacturing. That approach will continue because, in many of the critical technologies, the Chinese have made great advances. Third, there will be a significant focus on immigration. On Trump’s approach towards the Middle East President Biden has been extremely supportive of Israel. Even after the October 7 Hamas attacks, he visited Israel within a couple of weeks. The US has regularly supplied arms to Israel. Based on what we saw in Trump 1.0 and his subsequent comments, he is even more supportive of Israel. He has already appointed a special envoy for the Middle East and the ambassador to Israel, and both of them are very supportive of Israel. Trump helped negotiate the Abraham Accords in 2020 but such activities will end now because, among the Arab populations in these countries, there is anger over the Israel-Gaza situation. The Trump administration would want something resembling a ceasefire but there is no clarity on how that will go. There will be consequences for India, as the region is a major energy source, with around nine million Indians living and working in the Gulf. On Trump vs China In the area of critical minerals, the global market is heavily dominated by the Chinese. If you look at artificial intelligence, the largest number of patents are being filed by the Chinese, followed by the US. So, the Chinese will try and use the leverage they have built up in electronics, electronic components and other areas to generate counter-pressure on the US. On the India-US ties in Trump 2.0 The India-US relationship has consolidated steadily since 2000. One is the strength of the bilateral relationship, with the US being our largest trading partner. US investment in India is the largest foreign investment in India at $60 billion. According to a survey done by an Indian business organisation, Indian companies have invested more than $40 billion in the US economy. One out of seven patients in the US is seen by an Indian-origin doctor. Overall, there’s deep integration of the Indian-origin community in US politics, administration and Congress. A new phenomenon that has developed is called the Global Capability Centers. These centres in India are servicing not India’s operations but the global operations of multinational companies. There are 1,700 such centres in India doing cutting-edge R&D and technology development work. About 60 per cent of those centres belong to the US companies. Many leading US technology companies in semiconductors, digital sector, jet engines, employ thousands of people in India. The Americans recognise that if they are facing the China challenge, and if they had to maintain their pre-eminence, they need a partnership with another country with 1.4 billion people, which has tremendous human skill capital. Today, 20 per cent of the global talent in semiconductor design is located in India. Certainly China, I would say, is an additional factor that further encourages this trend but not the main factor. Because I think in the US assessment, a strong India would be a natural constraint on China’s unilateral and assertive actions in its neighbourhood. I think India should not be too worried on that account except for the disruption that may happen for families if there is any deportation taking place.
