With the verdict in the disqualification case of 18 rebel AIADMK MLAs expected this week, 22 MLAs including T T V Dhinakaran will be moving to a “safe location” in Kerala on Monday. The decision to “safeguard” MLAs in the Dhinakaran camp could be crucial, as the verdict could throw up several possibilities including the fall of the AIADMK government if the verdict goes in favour of the 18 MLAs. Sources close to Dhinakaran said he met V K Sasikala, his aunt and expelled AIADMK leader, in the Bengaluru prison on Monday and briefed her about the situation. “With her knowledge, he has asked everyone to move out of Chennai immediately. Most of the MLAs are there now. Everyone will be reaching a location near Kerala-Tamil Nadu border by Tuesday to stay there until the Madras High Court order is out and strategies are decided,” a leader said. After 18 rebel MLAs supporting the Sasikala-Dhinakaran faction met the Governor and expressed lack of confidence in CM E Palaniswami, the Speaker disqualified them in September 2017. They moved a petition in the HC challenging the Speaker’s decision, and the court restrained the Election Commission from declaring their seats vacant. In the 234-member Assembly, two seats are vacant, including that of late DMK chief M Karunanidhi. If the order is in favour of the 18 rebel MLAs, AIADMK government needs 117 MLAs to cross the halfway mark of 116. The AIADMK is now short of at least five MLAs. The rival camp has 121 MLAs, which includes Dhinakaran camp’s 23 MLAs including independent MLA Dhinakaran and Karunas, who was an ally of AIADMK and contested on AIADMK symbol, and 97 MLAs of DMK-Congress-IUML alliance. Explaining the decision to shift MLAs out of Chennai, a senior Dhinakaran camp leader said they were hoping for a favourable order. “We have heard that AIADMK is ready to file an appeal if the verdict is against them. Still, we hope the SC is unlikely to entertain that appeal directly before asking the government to prove majority,” he said. When there is a floor test, the leader said, Dhinakaran faction will get the support of more MLAs to replace CM Palaniswami.
