Short relief from heatwave soon, monsoon to hit Kerala in 5 days

“Against a normal of three days, heatwave spells lasting 3 to 6 days is likely next month,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Heatwaves would affect Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi , Uttar Pradesh and northern Madhya Pradesh. In addition to the above normal maximum temperatures, warm and humid nights shall prevail over these states.

The Met office said the southwest monsoon was progressing normally, and conditions were suitable for its onset on the Kerala coast in the next five days. The normal date for the monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1. The IMD said since the advancement of the monsoon in the Andaman Sea on May 19, it had been making steady progress and it was likely to hit the Kerala coast in the next five days, possibly before June 1.

‘Severe’ cyclone Remal, which hit West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts on Sunday night, will not have any adverse impact on the advancement of the southwest monsoon, said Mohapatra.

Despite being on land for over 18 hours, Remal sustained the wind speed of a cyclonic storm and was headed towards northeast India. Meghalaya, Assam and neighbouring areas are under ‘red’ alert ahead of very heavy rainfall associated with this storm on May 28 and 29.

“The cyclone being a translational event and Remal lasting for three-days has had a temporary effect but it has helped the advance of the monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Now, with the further increasing inflow, depth and strength of southwest monsoon winds, there are favourable conditions developing for the advancement of the southwest monsoon over Kerala expected during the next five days,” said Mohapatra, who released the IMD’s second-stage Long Range Forecast of the southwest monsoon season on Monday.

“The monsoon advance over the southern peninsular India this year is likely to be normal,” the IMD chief said.

As forecast in April, the Met department maintained that the country’s seasonal rainfall this year will be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) which is 880.6mm (as per 1971 – 2020 data). Except Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, northern Uttarakhand, Odisha, southern Jharkhand and southern Chhattisgarh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh, rest of the country will receive normal or above normal rainfall during June – September, the IMD has forecast.

In the onset month, the IMD has forecast normal to ‘above’ normal rainfall over the entire country with respect to the country’s LPA rainfall for June of 166.9mm.

The rainfall over the southern peninsular, Odisha, southern Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, during June, is expected to be above normal this June. For the past fortnight, southern peninsular India has battered very heavy rainfall. During May 1 – 26, the southern peninsular received 103.9 per cent above normal and quantitatively it was 116.2mm, the IMD’s rainfall data suggested. Whereas, the all-India rainfall, so far, has been 8 per cent below normal.

After April, extended heatwave conditions have been prevailing over many parts of the country. In May, prolonged heatwave conditions prevailed across north and northwest India. Since its commencement on May 16, heatwave has been experienced over Gujarat (12 days), west Rajasthan(11 days), east Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana(9 days, each).

Heatwave conditions during May surfaced in two phases: during May 1 – 5, over east and southern India; and since May 16 over north and northwest India spanning Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh.

However, there may be temporary relief over north and northwest India from the prevailing heatwave conditions, which are set to abate after May 30, the IMD said. This will be due to the approaching fresh stream of western disturbance.

In June, the maximum temperatures are set to rise again over north and northwest India, where the monsoon onset is not realised before the last week of June. The IMD has warned of resurfacing of heatwave over Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh.