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Neutral conditions to prevail in Pacific Ocean till October: US weather monitor

This comes a week before the India Meteorological Department (IMD) releases the first stage Long Range Forecast for the upcoming monsoon season.

Indian monsoon, monsoon, monsoon forecast, monsoon rains, El Nino, El Nino conditions, El Nino effect, Indian express news, current affairs

“There is over 50 per cent chance of ENSO neutral conditions to prevail during August-October 2025,” the NOAA.

India’s southwest monsoon benefit this year is likely to benefit from the neutral phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

According to the April update issued by the US weather monitor, the neutral phase of ENSO will emerge and continue during the entire summer season over the northern hemisphere. “There is over 50 per cent chance of ENSO neutral conditions to prevail during August-October 2025,” the NOAA.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an ocean atmospheric phenomenon that is considered as one of the most important recurring natural events, capable of altering global atmospheric circulations. ENSO has three phases: warm (El Nino), neutral and cool (La Nina).

This comes a week before the India Meteorological Department (IMD) releases the first stage Long Range Forecast for the upcoming monsoon season. Earlier this month, the IMD had also ruled out El Nino during the upcoming monsoon season.

ENSO influences the Indian monsoon during June-September. Nearly 70 per cent of the country’s rainfall is recorded during these four months. The season is vital for the kharif sowing, replenishment of reservoirs and overall economy.

While La Nina is known to positively influence the southwest monsoon and bring normal or above seasonal rainfall, El Nino has been linked with below-average seasonal rainfall and even droughts, in some years. In the past, ENSO neutral conditions have coincided with the country receiving normal or above rainfall.

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