MP forest staff get ready but why cheetahs may not roam free

The Government has described the project as “an endeavour to better manage and restore some of our most valuable yet most neglected ecosystems and the species dependent upon them”. And yet, going by its Action Plan finalised in January, experts fear that these cheetahs may not have a long-term future on their own and will always depend on translocations for genetic viability.

According to the project’s Population Viability Analysis, the cheetahs will have a long-term future only in a population size of 50 or more — or if multiple smaller populations are inter-connected (meta-population) to allow gene flow.

However, the project’s carrying capacity estimate says that Kuno “holds potential to sustain up to 21 cheetahs” and “the potential cheetah habitat covering over 3,200 sq km Kuno landscape with restorative measures and scientific management could provide a prey base for up to 36 cheetahs”.

According to the Action Plan, the new population is expected to reach the “carrying capacity level in about 15 years” in Kuno, and that it would take “30-40 years depending on survival, recruitment and supplementation” to reach the landscape-level carrying capacity of 36.

In a nutshell, if every restorative measure works in the long term, and regular imports continue from Africa, Kuno’s cheetah population will still be far from viable on its own even after four decades.

The only other option — inter-connected smaller populations — requires physical connectivity that allows individual cheetahs to reach a neighbouring population. But the Action Plan does not consider such dispersal safe even around Kuno.

“During the initial years of cheetah introduction (5–6 years) or population below 18-20 adult cheetahs, it may be prudent not to allow cheetahs to disperse into sink habitats of the landscape. If there are such instances, cheetah(s) would be captured and brought back to Kuno NP or translocated to other release sites,” the Action Plan states.

Experts point out that what is being considered risky even in the periphery of a national park for now is unlikely to be ever feasible across long distances as human habitations and transport infrastructure separating future pocket populations of cheetahs will only multiply over time.

Wildlife Institute of India’s Dr Y V Jhala, who is the lead author of the Action Plan, and Madhya Pradesh chief wildlife warden J S Chauhan declined to comment on the project.

Veteran conservationist M K Ranjitsinh, who is one of the three members of the Supreme Court panel set up in 2020 to guide the project, said smaller cheetah populations would have to be “managed” as a meta-population under the Action Plan.

“We have to acknowledge the ground reality. Cheetahs will always wander around and we are looking at up to 50 per cent mortality. But in the absence of natural connectivity, cheetahs will be translocated from time to time from one population to another to maintain genetic viability. Most of our wilderness areas have become islands. Even tigers, for example, face the same crisis,” Ranjitsinh told The Indian Express.

Offering a different perspective, a senior Forest officer in Madhya Pradesh said: “Habitat fragmentation is a universal problem but many tiger reserves still hold viable populations with 20 breeding females or more. Others have lost their numbers or connectivity or both over time. In the cheetah’s case, we will create founder (new) populations with the knowledge that they will never become naturally viable. Is this worth it or not? That is a policy decision.”

Conservationist Valmik Thapar said his experience from observing over 400 individual cheetahs in the African wild over the years convinced him that there was “neither the habitat nor the prey” for it to survive in India. “Forget long-term viability, they (introduced cheetahs) will need management intervention in every step for survival,” he said.

Experts have also questioned what they say is “misplaced priority”. “When cheetahs are unlikely to achieve a self-sustaining population, how will they help save other species and habitats? All the ecological functions claimed as benefits from the introduction of cheetahs from Africa could be met by translocating lions from Gujarat,” said Ravi Chellam, wildlife biologist and conservation scientist.

The plan to secure the Asiatic lion as a back-up population in Kuno has been hanging fire since 1993. In April 2013, the Supreme Court shot down the cheetah project and set a six-month deadline for shifting a few lions from the isolated population in Gujarat’s Gir national park. As Gujarat held on to its lions, the Centre revived the cheetah plan in 2017. Finally, in 2020, the Supreme Court gave the green signal for the move — but only “on an experimental basis”.